A look at some of the biggest polluters and the impact elections could have

Russia

The country held a largely pre-decided election in March. Vladimir Putin returned to power for a fifth term riding the wave of anti-west sentiment and the Ukraine war. Any focus on climate change was largely missing. But as the war trundles on into the third year, the country’s action on climate is likely to take a back seat as Moscow tries to reinvigorate its economy amid sanctions.

The country aims to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 70% compared to the 1990 levels by 2030 and to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.

Russia is the fifth largest emitter of greenhouse gases.

Climate change experts see those targets as modest or even insufficient, Dr Pamela Chasek, executive editor, Earth Negotiations Bulletin, told HT over email.

Controversially, these aims don’t include a plan to phase out fossil fuels. According to its stated commitments, Russia plans to meet these goals by expanding forest carbon sinks, carbon capture and storage, and reliance on nuclear power and hydropower.

“The war in Ukraine has complicated Russia’s climate action… A lot of the technology that Russia would use to meet these targets comes from the West and the war in Ukraine has complicated the import of technologies from the West due to sanctions,” Chasek said.

“Many of Russia's environmental initiatives have been watered down due to the focus on the war effort and the urgent need to replace Western goods on the domestic market,” she said.

US

The US on the other hand is swinging between some climate action at the government level under Biden to climate denial if Trump is reelected in November.

Among some of the positive things to come out of the Biden Presidency is the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022 which aims to curb inflation by reducing the federal government budget deficit, lowering prescription drug prices, and investing in domestic energy production while promoting clean energy.

A key stated goal of the act is to reduce carbon emissions by around 40% by 2030. This is still short of the commitment, under the Nationally Determined Contribution, it made in 2021, pledging to reduce emissions by 50-52% from the 2005 levels by 2030.

Yet, the signing of the act into law has been hailed as the Biden administration’s most important climate action.

“(The IRA is) the most comprehensive climate legislation the US has ever seen. The law invests hundreds of billions of dollars in clean energy, electric vehicles, environmental justice and more. It put the US onto a path to achieve President Biden’s bold goals of reaching net-zero emissions no later than 2050, and cutting emissions in half by 2030,” Chasek said.

The Act has several provisions to drive the US economy towards a clean energy system, including a suite of tax credits for carbon-friendly energy sources and electric vehicles, money for grants that subsidize climate-friendly or pollution-cutting projects, and a program to punish oil and gas companies for leaks of planet-warming methane.

But if Trump is reelected, and polls show he is leading by 0.8 percentage points, he may pull out of the Paris Agreement, again. He also plans to use his administrative power to weaken regulations and expand oil and gas programmes.

This, clearly, has experts concerned who fear a second Trump presidency would mean chaos.

“If elected, Trump is likely to undermine the gains of the Inflation Reduction Act, or help a Republican Congress do away with the law entirely,” Chasek said.

“Internationally, we have seen that Trump is unpredictable, anti-environmental protection, and inconsistent on the world stage. Bottom line: a Trump presidency would not be good for the climate and a Republican-controlled Congress would make it even worse.”

EU

Things may turn similarly worse for the European Union where 27 countries will elect 720 leaders to the European Parliament between June 6 and 9. The parliament directly shapes EU legislation, policies, and budgets, reflecting the democratic voice of almost half a billion citizens across Europe.

In 2021, the Union, which likes to portray itself as a world leader in climate action, passed laws to reduce emissions by at least 55% from the 1990 levels by 2030, and carbon neutrality by 2050.

Under an updated proposal this year, it has planned a 90% reduction in emissions by 2040. At present, the bloc’s emissions are at a 32.5% drop.

Surveys so far indicate a shift to the right for the Parliament, a situation where leaders may be less focused on climate action.

“The potential for a far-right surge in the European Parliament is leading some to think that they are going to appease the demands of farmers that climate and environmental policies are detrimental to their livelihoods as well as the livelihoods of people throughout the EU. In fact, many right-wing politicians have been spreading misleading information about excessive EU climate policies and the harm they are doing to all Europeans,” Chasek said.

This, she added, could lead to anti-EU sentiment among member nations that may endanger progress on the bloc’s commitments and measures.

But, there may still be hope with the climate crisis remaining among the key issues for the electorate.

“Climate change remains one of the issues EU voters are most concerned about, particularly young voters. The majority of voters in Germany, France, and Poland continue being concerned about the effects of climate change and therefore still support policy measures, albeit to varying degrees,” Chasek said.

India

In India, things may be a bit more complex.

Climate crisis is not really an election agenda in the world’s third-largest emitter. That can be attributed to a lack of awareness for the majority of the population and a lack of initiative for the political parties. To top this, the Indian electorate lacks candidates who would prioritise climate and sustainability.

It’s not as if this lack of awareness or initiative is for want of proof. There have been several extreme weather events in the last few years to instil a sense of urgency.

On both sides of the political spectrum are promises like jobs, residential utilities like access to drinking water and free units of electricity, and better road connectivity.

In the short-term, fulfilling all of these promises would mean fossil-fuel-intensive practices which would run contrary to the country’s commitments at the global platform.

“India has made significant progress in deploying renewable energy and accelerating electric vehicle adoption over the past decade. At the same time, there remains significant room for growth to achieve its target of deploying 500GW of non-fossil capacity by 2030. A study by the International Institute for Sustainable Development has found that India's fossil fuel subsidies have declined by 59% since 2014, an accomplishment that many other large economies have struggled to achieve. India's new government can increase ambition in its next NDC submission to accelerate the pace of RE deployment to achieve the global goal of tripling renewables by 2030 and focus on redirecting financial flows away from fossil fuels towards clean energy,” said Siddharth Goel, a senior policy advisor at the International Institute for Sustainable Development.

Tannu Jain, HT's deputy chief content producer, picks a piece of climate news from around the globe and analyses its impact using connected reports, research and expert speak