Why does it matter?

Methane, a primary component of natural gas and a byproduct of fossil fuel emissions, has a much shorter atmospheric lifetime than carbon dioxide – about a decade compared with the centuries it takes CO2 to dissipate – but is over 25 times more potent at trapping heat in the atmosphere than CO2.

Since the industrial revolution, methane has been responsible for nearly 45% of the current net warming, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s Sixth Assessment shows.

Separately, the IPCC synthesis report released on March 20 showed that the atmospheric concentrations of methane were higher in 2019 than at any other time in at least 800,000 years.

And, its sources are plenty.

According to different estimates, nearly 50-65% of methane emissions have anthropogenic (human-influenced) sources. Natural sources of methane emissions include natural wetlands, reservoirs and ponds, that produce methane through microbial breakdown of organic matter.

About 40% of these emissions come from leaks at oil and gas exploration sites, production and transport; another 40% from agricultural activities, including storage of animal manure, burping cattle and rice paddies in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Argentina; and another 20% from rotting waste at landfills and other such sites.

The biggest emitters include China, the US, Russia, India, Brazil, Indonesia, Nigeria and Mexico.

Is the energy sector alone to blame?

According to the International Energy Agency’s Global Methane Tracker, the energy sector added about 135 million tonnes of methane in the atmosphere in 2022.

A majority of these emissions are from leaks at oil and gas sites; some deliberate as to vent unwanted gas released while drilling to prevent blasts, and others accidental from poorly maintained equipment.

Over 500 super-emitter – large facilities, equipment, and other infrastructure accounting for approximately 10% of energy-related emissions – were identified in 2022 in an analysis of satellite data by Kayrros. An additional 105 were from coal mines.

At 184, Turkmenistan had the highest number of super-emitting events, attributable to ageing Soviet-era equipment, as per a Guardian report.

According to an analysis by the UN environment programme, emissions from oil and gas will increase over the next decade to 10 million tonnes per year by 2030, while those associated with coal will stay roughly constant or decrease slightly.

But these emissions may also be the easiest to cut

Methane is generally a secondary byproduct in industrial processes, and thus not viewed as an energy resource.

With existing technology, a reduction of 75% is possible in the oil and gas industry alone, the IEA said in its Global Methane Tracker report released on February 21, 2023. Less than 3% of the annual income of oil and gas companies would be required to make the $100 billion investment in technologies needed to achieve this reduction.

Separately, Kayrros, in its Global Methane Pledge Scorecard, issued ahead of COP27, said that eliminating all super emitters was possible by 2025.

A lot of the leaked methane, nearly three quarters according to IEA, can be retained and brought to market with existing technologies. “The captured methane would amount to more than the European Union’s total annual gas imports from Russia prior to the invasion of Ukraine,” the IEA said, adding that the numbers only highlight a lack of industry action.

Farming practices may be a different ballgame

Cows emit methane both through their burps and their manure, and rice cultivation emits methane when fields are flooded.

While there are ways to tackle both, changes in cultivation patterns and reduction in meat consumption, unless a majority of the over eight billion people on the planet switch to veganism, which is not only a long way ahead but also an unreasonable expectation, a major cut in the agriculture sector anytime soon is unlikely.

Methane released at landfills can be captured and used, which will also reduce local air pollution. Mitigating methane emissions could also reduce tropospheric ozone concentrations.

A research paper titled 'Global health benefits of mitigating ozone pollution with methane emission controls’, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences as far back as 2006, explained that tropospheric O3 is formed from photochemical reactions involving nitrous oxide and volatile organic compounds, such as methane. Thus, reducing methane emissions, could reduce concentrations of O3, and result in reducing global premature deaths by nearly 370,000 between 2010 and 2030, the study said.

What about natural removal?

The natural system of the planet is such that the CH4 produced by natural systems like wetlands can be removed in an oxidation reaction involving hydroxyl radicals.

This reaction would produce water and remove CH4 from the atmosphere. However, the same radical also reacts with carbon monoxide, now being generated in abundance across the globe because of the surge in wildfires.

Thus, the rising temperatures not only amplify CH4 production by speeding up microbe activity in wetlands, they also slow down CH4 removal because of forest fires.

According to a separate research reported by the Guardian, experts indicated emissions equivalent to 729 gigatonne (Gt) CO2 from leaks at gas fields. This number is almost double the planet’s remaining 1.5-degree carbon budget.

The Global Carbon Project pegs the remaining carbon budget – the amount of CO2 that can still be emitted for a 50% chance of staying below 1.5C of warming – at 380 billion tonnes of CO2 (GtCO2).

This is where satellites come into play

Over the last decade, as technology to capture and store carbon dioxide (CCS) was developed across the globe, several companies also worked on satellites that use infrared signals to detect plumes of methane.

Several new satellites with far higher resolutions are set for launch over the next few years, including MethaneSat, scheduled for launch by the US nonprofit Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) this year, and the first two satellites from Carbon Mapper in late 2023; the latter plans to have a whole “constellation” of them in orbit by 2025.

Till then, a Methane Pledge.

Over 100 countries at COP26 in 2021, agreed to sign the Global Methane Pledge, which aims to cut anthropogenic methane emissions by 30% by 2030. So far, 150 countries have signed the pledge, but major emitters, including Russia, China, Iran, India and Turkmenistan are yet to sign.

The science is clear, as COP28 President Designate Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber said on May 10. “Let’s scale up best practices and aim to reach net-zero methane emissions by 2030.”