The Stakes: More Than Just American Policy

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres' recent warning that we're "playing Russian roulette with our planet" underscores the urgency of the situation. The next US president will have a crucial role in steering global climate action at a time when extreme weather events have become more frequent and severe. The November 5 elections could have a significant impact on this year’s CoP summit, to be held in Azerbaijan, just days after the US elects a new president.

Voter Priorities and Climate Concerns

Despite the existential threat of climate crisis, it has not been a focal point of the 2024 campaign thus far. Narratives over economic issues, immigration, and foreign policy have taken centre stage. The recent devastation unleashed by two major hurricanes, however, may change voter priorities. Last month, Hurricane Helene became one of the deadliest storms ever to hit the US, killing more than 220 people and causing billions of dollars in damage. Hurricane Milton followed for two weeks, rampaging across Florida. Both storms, scientists have found, were made stronger by the climate crisis.

A Yale Program on Climate Change Communication report found that 62% of registered voters support candidates pledging climate action. This sentiment crosses party lines, with even half of liberal-moderate Republicans favouring such candidates. In voter priorities, however, the climate crisis still lags other issues. Only 2% of Americans cited it as the most important problem facing the country in a recent Gallup poll, far behind economic concerns and government leadership.

A Tale of Two Candidates

In Kamala Harris — a Democrat currently serving as vice president under President Joe Biden — the US voter has a candidate who has not only acknowledged the urgency of climate action but also was part of an administration that passed the most ambitious climate legislation in US history with the Inflation Reduction Act. This act set emission reduction targets and allocated substantial funds for clean energy transition.

Trump, on the other hand, has a track record of climate skepticism. During his previous term, he withdrew the US from the Paris Agreement and opened vast areas for oil and gas exploration, repeating his mantra of “drill, baby, drill” as he went. Recent reports suggest he plans to roll back environmental regulations if re-elected.

A New Way Forward

As part of Harris’s manifesto, the Democratic candidate has said “she will unite Americans to tackle the climate crisis” while building on previous work, advancing environmental justice, protecting public lands and public health, all the while continuing to hold polluters accountable to secure clean air and water for all. The manifesto also recognises the increasing frequency of extreme weather events and promises to increase resilience to climate disasters.

The Harris manifesto also charges at the former President, saying that “Trump asked Big Oil executives to give his campaign money so he could roll back regulations and cut taxes to boost their profits”.

A blueprint for the Trump Presidency

The Republican candidates’ manifesto Agenda 47, on the other hand, lists 20 core promises to make “America great again”. Among them is the promise to “Make America the dominant energy producer in the world, by far!”.

Further, its over 1300-word Preamble says: “Common Sense tells us clearly that we must unleash American Energy if we want to destroy Inflation and rapidly bring down prices, build the Greatest Economy in History, revive our Defense Industrial Base, fuel Emerging Industries, and establish the United States as the Manufacturing Superpower of the World. The United States has more liquid gold under our feet than any other Nation, and it’s not even close. The Republican Party will harness that potential to power our future,” it said.

Looking ahead

The 2024 US election isn't just about American politics; it's about the future of global climate action. Whether climate change will be the deciding factor remains to be seen, but its impact on the election —and the election's impact on climate policy — will undoubtedly be significant. The outcome of this election could determine whether we find an "exit ramp off the highway to climate hell”, or continue accelerating towards environmental catastrophe.

Tannu Jain, HT's chief content producer, picks a piece of climate news from around the globe and analyses its impact using connected reports, research and expert speak