Atlantic hurricane season coming soon: All you need to know about tropical cyclones
Forecasters predict that the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season will be near to slightly below average. This forecast is influenced by an anticipated El Niño event.
As we approach the Atlantic hurricane season, a period of heightened tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico, it becomes increasingly important to be prepared and well-informed about the potential danger. Here is all you need to know.
What are the latest updates?
As we approach Memorial Day weekend, according to FOX Forecast, there is a potential tropical disturbance brewing off the Eastern Seaboard. This could lead to heavy rain, rough surf, and gusty winds in the coastal regions of the Southeast, particularly affecting parts of the Carolinas and Florida. While water temperatures and upper-level winds only marginally support the possibility of this system developing into a tropical feature, the risk of enhanced rip currents is present. Historically, May has witnessed pre-season tropical cyclones, though they rarely strengthen beyond tropical storm status. If a cyclone forms off the Southeast coast, it would be the second system of 2023, with the next named storm set to be called Arlene.
What to Expect for the 2023 Hurricane Season
Forecasters predict that the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season will be near to slightly below average. This forecast is influenced by an anticipated El Niño event. El Niño events usually result in fewer Atlantic hurricanes. Prominent forecasters anticipate the formation of 13 tropical storms in the Atlantic, with six of them becoming hurricanes. Interestingly, El Niño conditions can lead to heightened hurricane activity in the eastern Pacific. As a result, the western coast of Mexico might experience an unusually active hurricane season.
Understanding Tropical Cyclones, Storms, and Hurricane
You may have come across the term "tropical cyclone" before, which encompasses both tropical storms and hurricanes. A tropical storm is named when its winds reach 39 mph. Once the storm's winds intensify to 74 mph, it is classified as a hurricane.
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The Atlantic Hurricane Basin: A Hub of Storm Activity
The Atlantic Hurricane Basin is renowned for its storm formation. These storms can develop in the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico. Historical data shows that a typical Atlantic hurricane season witnesses around 14 named storms. Out of these, approximately seven usually evolve into hurricanes. Among these hurricanes, about three reach major hurricane status, categorized as Category 3, 4, or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale3.
The Optimal Period for Hurricane Formation
Although the hurricane season officially spans from June to November, most hurricanes tend to form between July and October. This period provides the most favourable conditions for hurricane development, including warm ocean water, abundant thunderstorms, minimal wind shear, and significant large-scale rotation. Generally, the first named storm emerges in the middle or latter part of June, the first hurricane takes shape in early to mid-August, and the first major hurricane appears in late August or early September. The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season usually occurs around September 1.
Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season: A Different Pattern
The eastern Pacific hurricane season lasts from May 15 to November 30. This region extends from Mexico and Central America to the Pacific Ocean. Here, most tropical cyclones occur from late June to early October. On average, the eastern Pacific hurricane season witnesses around 15 named storms, eight hurricanes, and four major hurricanes. The first named storm typically forms in early to mid-June, the first hurricane in late June, and the first major hurricane by mid-July5.
