All you need to know about net zero emissions

The idea of net zero emissions has got a lot of traction among global climate negotiators over the last year and some agreement on it is expected at the UN Climate Change Conference in Glasgow in November. All major economies have announced net zero targets. Here is all you need to know about the concept and what it means for India:

What is net zero?

It is primarily carbon neutrality. It means the aggregate carbon emissions of a country should be zero on a given date. If a country emits a certain amount of carbon every year, it will have to offset it through forest absorption or carbon capturing or buying carbon credits. In a way, a country can achieve negative emissions, if removal and absorption exceed the actual emissions. Bhutan and Suriname are the only two countries in the world whose net emissions are less than carbon absorption capability because of their green cover and very little population.

How is net zero different from emission reduction?

Earlier, the discussions focussed on emission-reduction targets by 2050 or 2070 for rich countries, whose unregulated emissions over several decades are responsible for global warming and consequent climate crisis. In recent years, there has been a realisation that emission reduction will not work, and countries will have to work towards carbon neutrality. The net zero formulation does not assign any emission reduction targets to any country. It aims at aggregate zero emission levels. From the perspective of the developed world, it is a big relief because now the burden of climate change mitigation is shared by every country.

What is the net zero campaign about?

An aggressive campaign has been going on for the past two years for every country to assign a net zero target year. The argument is that net zero is mandatory to achieve the Paris Climate Agreement target of not allowing the planet’s temperature to rise beyond two degrees Celsius by the turn of the century. The concept got a fillip with Joe Biden’s election as the US president and the appointment of John Kerry as his special climate envoy. Kerry has visited over 30 countries since March pushing for a net zero goal. He is keen to have an agreement on net zero at Glasgow.

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What did Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) say about net zero?

The IPCC in its Physical Science Basis report released on August 9 said that reaching net zero for greenhouse gas emissions is a requirement to stabilise human-induced global temperature at any level. This was for the first time that net zero got scientific backing with IPCC projecting the impact of net zero in different scenarios. The report outlined the impact of net zero on global warming. It said the temperature rise can be restricted to 1.5 degree if net zero concept is enforced in the next five to 10 years. The report said the planet can achieve net zero to stop global warming despite certain modelling limitations such as permafrost thaw (pace of melting of ice sheets). The IPCC report went beyond net zero saying the world needs to aim for negative carbon emissions by the turn of the century to overcome the adverse impact of global warming.

How many countries have committed to net zero?

To date, 137 of 192 countries that are part of the UN Climate Convention and representing 80% of global emissions have committed to net zero emissions targets. They include the world’s two largest emitters – the US and China. The third biggest emitter, India, is yet to announce a net zero target year. China has a net zero target of 2060. Germany and Sweden have opted for 2045; Iceland and Austria 2040; Finland 2035; and Uruguay 2030. Most countries including the US have opted for 2050. Six countries have brought laws to achieve the target while the rest have pronounced so through policy documents.

Why is the West keen on this concept?

Climate experts cite two reasons for it. First, most of the western world, especially Europe, has moved away from fossil fuel to a cleaner and greener economy. Therefore, for them, to meet the net zero target would not be very investment intensive. According to International Energy Agency, the dependence of Europe on fossil fuels was less than 50%. Many other north European countries have good forest cover, which acts as carbon sink. The concept also provides a huge business opportunity as patents of a majority of cleaner and greener efficient technologies are with the western countries. “In a way, the West is equipped to earn huge from the green transition business,” said Sunita Narain of the Centre for Science and Environment.

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This is seen as a probable reason why Kerry and Glasgow Climate Summit president and UK environment minister Alok Sharma have been nudging India to stipulate a net zero year.

Why is India opposing the idea?

India believes that agreeing to net zero would slow down its economic growth and hamper its poverty alleviation programmes. It also believes that net zero negates the concept of common but differentiated responsibility of the UN Climate Convention to deal with the climate crisis. For India, rich countries have to share the burden for historical emissions and not the developing world which is not responsible for climate crisis. In net zero, every country has an equal responsibility to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and is not equitable.

net zero will impact India’s use of coal for electricity. As of now, thermal power contributes 60% of India’s needs. It is a reason why India is able to provide affordable electricity to most. India has said that net zero is not possible without the transfer of clean technology patents to the developing and underdeveloped world to help them faster transition to a cleaner economy. It also claims the Green Climate Fund set up in 2016 with a promise to share green technologies with the developing world has not been able to do much as the rich countries have not provided the promised US$ 100 billion by 2020. India has acknowledged that it would not be able to avoid net zero for long. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has announced Indian railways will achieve net zero by 2050, the country’s first carbon-neutral declaration.

Will the world reach an agreement on net zero at Glasgow?

Reaching an agreement on net zero would be difficult but not impossible, considering that so many countries have agreed to it. Most climate negotiators have said a roadmap for reaching an agreement on net zero is likely to be laid if it is not reached. Most experts believe that an agreement is possible in 2024 when climate mitigation targets under the Paris accord are to be reviewed. If there is an agreement, then the countries would have to provide a roadmap to achieve a net zero target, which could be audited and reviewed.

What next?

After net zero, the world will look at negative carbon emissions. The IPCC has presented a scenario for the same in its recent report.