In Oman, the situation was dire with heavy rains causing flash floods, particularly affecting Muscat, South Al Batinah, and North Al Sharqiyah. The National Multi-Hazard Early Warning Centre had forecasted this severe weather, highlighting the significant risks of flash floods and disruptions to transport and infrastructure​​.

To make matters worse, following fresh weather warnings, heavy rains and thunderstorms lashed the UAE late Wednesday and Thursday, although much less intense than rains in April so far. Numerous flights were cancelled due to heavy rainfall and stormy conditions. Live weather maps and forecasts indicate that these conditions could lead to potential disruptions and hazards impacting daily activities, and possibly causing flooding again in some cities.

Urban planning and infrastructure readiness

Like the Middle East, numerous Asian cities have been grappling with an increase in extreme weather events over the past decade, a phenomenon indicative of broader global climate trends.

Madhavan Nair Rajeevan, former secretary, ministry of earth sciences said, “Extreme weather events are fast becoming the new normal, and can occur in any urban area. Cities must be prepared for this possibility. When Dubai was developed, such intense rainfall was not anticipated, which resulted in inadequate drainage systems — a common scenario in many cities. Often, urban planning is based on historical climate data, failing to account for the rapid pace of climate change. This leads to infrastructure that is ill-suited for the future. Given that we now have reliable climate change projections, it is crucial that we use them to plan cities that can withstand future climate conditions."

In India, cities like Mumbai, Delhi, Kolkata, Bengaluru, and Chennai frequently face severe weather challenges, from monsoonal floods that disrupt daily life to unexpected urban flooding. Similarly, Jakarta in Indonesia contends with significant flooding exacerbated by monsoon rains and land subsidence, while Dhaka in Bangladesh faces disruptive annual floods due to its dense population and inadequate drainage systems. Manila in the Philippines and Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam also experience heavy rainfall and flooding due to typhoons and tropical storms. Bangkok is known for its vulnerability to flooding, particularly during the monsoon, due to challenges from its low-lying geography and rapid urbanisation.

"Integrating urban development plans with comprehensive strategies to combat extreme weather events is essential," said Anjal Prakash, IPCC author and research director at Bharti Institute of Public Policy, Indian School of Business. "The latest IPCC data underscores the increasing frequency and severity of these events globally. We need to leverage this data to create resilient urban spaces that are prepared for the future. It is not just about responding to these events but preemptively designing our infrastructure and policies to be robust and flexible in the face of climatic unpredictability."

“We have access to reliable climate projections that can guide urban development and infrastructure planning to anticipate extreme weather events at the national, state, and now even the city level thanks to climate action plans," Rajeevan added.

While planning new urban areas, it’s important to integrate climate projections to enhance resilience, Rajeevan explained. “For example, in Mumbai, where significantly changing the landscape or existing structures isn't feasible, our focus should shift towards developing effective mitigation strategies. This includes enhancing drainage systems, reinforcing buildings, and improving emergency response capabilities to reduce the impact of extreme weather events,” he said.

Successive floods in India’s urban centres and the recent one in Dubai underline the need for governments to reconsider their approach to urban planning and disaster management. "We all need to prepare for this kind of impact, anywhere and anytime,” stressed Rajeevan.

Understanding the severe weather events in the Middle East

Let’s take a step back to understand what led to the extreme weather events in the Middle East during the last week of April and the first week of May. Was it a natural process with impressions of climate change or was it cloud seeding?

Prakash refutes this saying, “Cloud seeding was not responsible for the severe precipitation. This technique can induce rain on a much smaller scale, but the intense rainfall experienced in Dubai cannot be attributed to cloud seeding.”

The World Weather Attribution, an international scientific collaboration that aims to analyse extreme weather events, recently stated that the events experienced in Oman and the UAE were likely linked to climate change driven by fossil fuel emissions. This analysis aligns with observations that such intense rainfall and associated disasters are becoming more frequent and severe as global temperatures rise.

“The event in April was caused by a well-defined large weather system, which moved across the region. We are witnessing a similar scenario for the weather event in May as well. The occurrence of rains in UAE and neighbouring countries is a natural process, however, it could be related to climate change. Due to rising temperatures, there is a tendency for more short-duration heavy rainfall spells,” explained Rajeevan.

According to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), the rapid pace of climate change is contributing to an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme weather conditions globally, including the recent heavy rainfall and flooding experienced in the Middle East. This trend is exacerbated by rising global temperatures and sea levels, influenced by the continued emission of greenhouse gases.

Prakash helped break down the science. He explained that El Niño refers to the periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, which significantly influences global weather patterns. “As global temperatures rise, the effects of El Niño, along with its counterpart La Niña, are increasingly contributing to extreme weather events across various regions. While research is ongoing, it is evident that the El Niño phenomenon played a significant role in the recent heavy rainfall events in the Middle East,” said Prakash.

Global warming has increased Earth's average temperature by 1.48 degrees Celsius since the pre-industrial age, which has intensified the water cycle by increasing atmospheric moisture, added Prakash. “This effect, compounded by phenomena such as El Niño, leads to heavy precipitation in specific regions based on local weather conditions. The influence of El Niño and La Niña is expected to grow more pronounced as global temperatures continue to rise. The synergy between rising global temperatures and the El Niño effect accelerates the water cycle, leading to more extreme weather patterns globally,” he said.

Dubai serves as a critical reminder of the perils of climate change and draws parallels to such events being faced in India. This holds more significance this year as the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on April 15 predicted that the 2024 southwest monsoon will likely see above-normal rainfall, estimating it at 106% of the long-period average. This contrasts with the previous years when the monsoon rainfall was near normal. In 2023, the rainfall reached 96% of the long-period average, reflecting a slight deficit due to a delayed onset, while in 2022, the rainfall was 106% of the average, indicating a more generous monsoon season​. Elements such as inadequate drainage systems, outdated urban designs, and insufficient flood barriers are common across cities that will face increased weather-related challenges.

Rajeevan recommends that urban planners and policymakers use reliable climate projections to plan for both adaptation and mitigation. "We need to reevaluate urban infrastructure, particularly water management, and emergency services, to handle sudden, severe weather conditions more effectively. There is a pressing need to rethink how cities are built and maintained, not only in response to the historical and current climate but also in anticipation of future climatic conditions,” he said.

As cities continue to grow and climate patterns evolve, the integration of strengthened emergency preparedness and responsive infrastructure into urban development plans is essential for safeguarding urban populations.

“We need to focus on both adaptation and mitigation. The extreme weather events we're seeing in Dubai hint at a future where such occurrences become commonplace unless we meet global climate targets to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2050 and avoid surpassing 2 degrees. If we successfully curtail warming over the next 50 years, we can prevent these severe events from becoming the norm,” said Prakash.