Tamil Nadu assembly polls: Dravidian fronts still key contenders for 234 seats

The Election Commission on Friday announced that elections to the 234-seat Tamil Nadu assembly will take place on April 6. The results will be announced on May 2.

In Tamil Nadu, the balance of power has traditionally see-sawed between the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) since 1967. The 2021 elections will again be a direct contest between the two major Dravidian political forces. The AIADMK won the last two assembly elections.

However, the difference in this assembly election is it will be held without the two stalwarts of Tamil Nadu politics, M Karunanidhi and J Jayalalithaa.

The AIADMK is now headed by the combine of chief minister Edappadi Palaniswami and deputy CM O Paneerselvam, foes-turned-friends, who, along with their electoral ally, the Bharatiya Janata Party, will be seeking a successive third term. The DMK is headed by M K Stalin, Karunanidhi’s son, and it has a partnership with the Congress and the Left parties. “In the absence of the two leaders, this is the most crucial elections. For Stalin, this is a test that he will have to pass. For the AIADMK and Palaniswami, this is an equally formidable test,” said R Kannan, biographer of ex-CMs MG Ramachandran and C N Annadurai.

A loss for DMK would mean a question mark on Stalin’s leadership within his family and in the party, and AIADMK’s failure to return to power could provide momentum to the campaign of VK Sasikala, who is waiting to lead the AIADMK again.

Indeed, Sasikala, and her nephew TTV Dinakaran’s party, AMMK, could play spoiler. Sasikala was a close confidante and companion of Jayalalithaa and has just been released after serving four years in prison in a disproportionate assets case. Palaniswami was her candidate for CM (she favoured him over Paneerselvam), but he distanced himself from her and also expelled her, and Dinakaran from the party. Now she is out, and Dinakaran has been making noises about a combined AIADMK, one presumably headed by his aunt. The weakening of these regional parties could also provide space to the BJP to expand its base. Union home minister Amit Shah has already tasked party workers to work towards a BJP-led government in 2026.

After Jayalalithaa’s death, the BJP,which has neither an MLA nor an MP in TN backed a rudderless AIADMK so that the government could stay afloat. The parties formed an alliance for the 2019 LS polls, but won only one of 39 parliamentary seats.

The DMK-led alliance seems more united with its allies working towards making DMK president MK Stalin the next CM. The heir apparent is also already in place—Stalin’s son and DMK’s youth wing secretary Udhayanidhi Stalin will contest from Karunanidhi’s favoured constituency, Chepauk in Chennai. “The DMK appears as a cohesive unit because it is riding on its Lok Sabha performance, although that was mostly a vote against (Prime Minister Narendra) Modi here. And there is a general impression that they are poised to come to power. That’s holding them together,” says Kannan. The DMK won 38 seats in the Lok Sabha poll.

“The AIADMK cannot be written off; that the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) is with them will give them an edge in the northern districts,” Kannan added. The latter is a party of the Vanniyar community, and, interestingly, Palanaiswami’s last act before polls were announced was to pass an order that gives 10.5% internal reservation to Vanniyar community within the existing 20% reservation for the Most Backward Classes. Though the DMK swept the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the situation has vastly changed since.

“The AIADMK has shown that it is not a bad administration via its management of Covid-19 pandemic and daily governance,” said political analyst TN Gopalan. “The DMK has an edge, but the AIADMK won’t be wiped out as easily as in 2019.”

Dinakaran, an independent MLA elected from Jayalalithaa’s vacant seat, floated the Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam in 2018 with Sasikala’s supporters. The AMMK is expected to eat into the AIADMK’s vote base.

Although actor Rajinikanth has decided not to enter the political fray, actor-politician Kamal Haasan has positioned his party Makkal Needhi Maiam as an alternative to the Dravidian parties by promising a corruption-free government