Tamil Nadu assembly election to be held on April 6; all eyes on DMK, AIADMK

The Election Commission on Friday announced that election to the 234 seats of Tamil Nadu assembly will take place onApril 6.

In Tamil Nadu, the balance of power has traditionally see-sawed between the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) since 1967. The 2021 elections will again be a direct contest between the two major Dravidian political forces.

However, the difference in this assembly election is it will be held without the two stalwarts of Tamil Nadu politics, M Karunanidhi and J Jayalalithaa. The former died in 2018 and the latter in 2016, leaving a void in the state politics that historically hovered around charismatic leaders with mass appeal.

This is the first state election since their deaths which would be helmed by leaders with less of a mass following—chief minister Edappadi Palaniswami will lead the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), and MK Stalin will head the United Progressive Alliance (UPA). These elections will determine the future of the two leaders, said political experts.

“In the absence of the two leaders, this is the most crucial election. For DMK’s Stalin, this is a test that he will have to pass. For the AIADMK’s Palaniswami, this is an equally formidable test,” said R Kannan, the biographer of former Tamil Nadu chief ministers MG Ramachandran and CN Annadurai and a political commentator. “Palaniswami has done well to hold the government together all these years but if he were to lose, he must do so honourably.”

The stakes are much higher for both the parties this time—the DMK has been out of power for 10 years and the AIADMK faces multiple existential threats within and outside the party.

Also Read | PM Modi launches BJP campaigns in poll-bound Tamil Nadu, Puducherry

A loss for DMK would mean a question mark on Stalin’s leadership within his family and in the party, and AIADMK’s failure to return to power could provide momentum to the campaign of VK Sasikala, who is waiting to lead the AIADMK again.

The weakening of these regional parties could also provide space to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to expand its base. Union home minister Amit Shah has already tasked party workers to work towards a BJP-led government in the state in 2026.

After Jayalalithaa’s death, the BJP, which has noMLA or MP in Tamil Nadu, backed a rudderless AIADMK so the government could stay afloat. The parties partnered together during the 2019 national elections, winning only one Parliamentary seat. Their alliance continues with chief minister Palaniswami as the NDA’s candidate for the top job.

The DMK-led alliance seems more united with its allies working towards making DMK president MK Stalin the next chief minister. The heir apparent is also already in place—Stalin’s son and DMK’s youth wing secretary Udhayanidhi Stalin on Thursday filed for a ticket to contest from Karunanidhi’s favoured constituency Chepauk in Chennai.

“The DMK appears a cohesive unit because it is riding on previous election performance, although it was mostly a vote against (Prime Minister Narendra) Modi here. And there is a general impression that they are poised to come to power. That’s holding them together,” said Kannan. “The AIADMK cannot be written off; that the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) is with them will give them an edge in the northern districts.”

Though the DMK swept the 2019 polls, winning 38 out of 39 Parliamentary seats, the situation has vastly changed in favour of the AIADMK, making it challenging for Team Stalin to repeat their performance.

“The AIADMK has shown that it is not a bad administration via its management of Covid-19 pandemic and daily governance,” said political analyst TN Gopalan. “The DMK has an edge as of now, but the AIADMK won’t be wiped out as easily as in 2019 when there was pent-up anger against the establishment which was seen to be working under the BJP.”

By-polls to 22 assembly constituencies were conducted in two phases alongside the Parliamentary election in 2019, wherein the AIADMK performed well enough to retain power by winning nine seats, while the DMK won the remaining 13 seats.

Eighteen of the 22 seats became vacant after AIADMK MLAs were disqualified for siding with Sasikala’s nephew TTV Dhinakaran ahead of Palaniswami’s floor test in February 2017, where the latter proved majority.

“I’ve come from a farmer background and I’ve become the CM. The DMK tried to conspire against me and do everything to bring the government down when the floor test happened, but we crossed all ordeals and we are going to complete this government successfully,” Palaniswami said in a post-assembly press conference on Friday.

One of the challenges the AIADMK is facing besides a decade of anti-incumbency, is their former interim general secretary Sasikala, who is seeking to reclaim the party. Sasikala, Jayalalithaa’s closest aide, returned to Chennai earlier this month after serving a four-year jail term in the disproportionate assets case in Bengaluru.

Sasikala has called for Jayalalithaa’s “true cadre” to unite to fight their “common enemy DMK”. The AIADMK’s dual leadership of Palaniswami and deputy chief minister O Paneerselvam stonewalled Sasikala and Dhinakaran after expelling them in 2017.

Dhinakaran, an independent MLA elected from Jayalalithaa’s vacant seat, floated the Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK) in 2019 with Sasikala’s supporters. The AMMK, with a 5% vote share in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, is expected to eat into the AIADMK’s vote base in southern Tamil Nadu.

Although actor Rajinikanth has exited the election stage in December 2020 much before the heat began, his contemporary, actor-politician Kamal Haasan, has positioned himself as an alternative to the Dravidian parties by promising a corruption-free party. Formed in 2018, Haasan’s Makkal Needhi Maiam (MNM) enjoys some support in urban areas as evident from his political debut in 2019 where he registered a 3.8% vote share.

The state has a long history of welfare politics implemented by successive DMK and AIADMK governments wherein the voting pattern has been influenced by freebies and caste identity.

The electorate brought down governments accused of corruption in at least two elections—1996 (Jayalalithaa was accused of amassing wealth disproportionate to her income) and in 2011 (the UPA-DMK government was embroiled in the 2G spectrum scam). Although both camps have traded bards on corruption while campaigning, it doesn’t seem to be a big issue this election.

“Corruption will not be an issue; it has become a way of life. Governance will be a bigger issue,” said Kannan.

Palaniswami and Stalin have been making a series of announcements of loan waivers, financial help and addressing grievances in their outreach to various sections including farmers.

The DMK-led alliance includes the Congress, Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), the Left parties, the Manithaneya Makkal Katchi (MMK), the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) and the Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK). The AIADMK-led alliance includes the BJP, the PMK, the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK), the Tamil Maanila Congress, and the Puthiya Tamizhagam.