Exit polls give Stalin a clear majority in Tamil Nadu; a clean sweep to NDA in Puducherry
The DMK expects more seats than what is projected in the exit polls. “We don’t rely on exit polls,” said DMK organising secretary R S Bharathy.
Exit polls on Thursday projected the MK Stalin-led DMK coalition TO storm to power after a decade with a clear majority in the 234 assembly where 118 is the halfway mark.
For the DMK and allies, the ABP News-C Voter predicts 160-172 seats, Axis My India predicts 175-195, Today’s Chanakya predicts 175, P MARQ predicts 165-190, Republic-CNX 160-170. On average 165 seats have been projected for DMK in which Congress, Dalit, Left and Muslim-based parties are in alliance.
The DMK expects more seats than what is projected in the exit polls. “We don’t rely on exit polls,” said DMK organising secretary R S Bharathy. “We have done our own assessment and are expecting to win between 180 to 205 seats. Our leader (Stalin) has met all the district secretaries, candidates, alliances candidates and reviewed every constituency. Exit polls may have around 50,000 sample size while we have sampled the entire state,” he said.
The exit polls projected a grim picture for the ruling AIADMK-led NDA alliance in the state. For the AIADMK, which faced ten years of anti-incumbency, the ABP News-C Voter predicted 58-70 seats, Axis My India predicted 38-54, Today’s Chanakya predicted 57, P MARQ predicted 40-65, Republic-CNX 58-68. On average, 165 seats have been projected for DMK in which Congress, Dalit, Left and Muslim-based parties are in alliance. On average, 66 seats have been projected for the AIADMK.
The BJP said that the exit polls would be proved wrong. “Exit and opinion polls aren’t the actual result. There is no need to get anxious,” said BJP spokesperson Narayanan Thirupathy. “In 2016, they predicted 140 seats for DMK and in 2019, they projected AIADMK to win but both didn’t happen. They will be wrong again. We are very confident that the AIADMK-led alliance will have a comfortable majority. The last seven days of polling were crucial. DMK’s A Raja spoke so badly about women. And people won’t forget the good word the state and centre did for Covid-19 control,” he said.
Other parties such as AIADMK’s rebel faction AMMK, led by TTV Dhinakaran, is predicted to win less than five seats by various exit polls while Kamal Haasan’s Makkal Needhi Maiam is predicted to win not more than 3 seats at best.
Political analysts had given DMK an edge while some had said it would be closely fought. “DMK will exceed the exit polls prediction,” said political analyst Raveendran Duraisamy. “It will be a near repeat of DMK’s sweep in the 2019 polls. Those who are saying 2016 exit polls didn’t predict AIADMK’s win but J Jayalalithaa won a second term are prisoners of the past. The situation is completely different after her death. 25% of Jayalalithaa’s votes have come to Stalin. AIADMK’s alliance with the BJP and PMK has made Christian, Muslims and Dalits move towards the DMK,” he added.
In Puducherry, Axis My India has projected the AINRC-led NDA alliance to win 20-24 out of the 30 seats. “A BJP win was in the cards,” said Thirupathy. “You may ask why what I said about exit polls being wrong in Tamil Nadu doesn’t apply to Puducherry. It’s because there is no DMK and AIADMK here. The Congress has rejected itself and so have the people. N Rangasamy (AINRC founder) has a clean image and it was a cakewalk for the NDA,” he said.