The Congress party was counting on the momentum it had built over the past year, starting from the Mekedatu Padayatra demanding water for Bengaluru to its five poll promises, some of which, like the 200 units of free electricity and ₹2,000 stipend for women, have caught the imagination of voters.

In addition, the sustained 40% Sarkara campaign — a reference to allegations by the Karnataka Contractors’ Association, claiming that Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leaders and officials take 40% of the tender amount as a bribe for state-funded infrastructure projects — had put the party in a position of advantage. The Congress expected the anti-corruption campaigns would provide them with an additional vote share compared to the usual anti-incumbency votes.

“The party has designed its poll promises in such a way that it offers people relief from the price rise and also serves as a reminder of how prices of everything have gone up in the past few years. The double-engine government which BJP keeps talking about is responsible for this problem. People are responding well to our promises,” said KPCC president DK Shivakumar.

Whenever Congress has come to power with a majority ( in 1989, 1999, 2013), the opposition in the state has been divided between multiple parties. In 1989 the Janata Party, BJP, Janata Dal and Karnataka Rajya Raitha Sangha split the opposition votes. In 1999, the Janata Party splitting in two gave Congress a breakthrough. The last time Congress came to power with a majority, was in 2013, BS Yediyurappa forming a party after splitting from the BJP helped them get a majority.

In this election, the split in the opposition is not obvious. According to a senior Congress leader, the party was able to successfully highlight how Lingayat leaders were sidelined in the BJP. “Because of how Yediyurappa cried when he was removed from power and Lingayat leaders like Laxman Savadi and Jagadish Shettar were denied tickets by the BJP, at least there a doubt among Lingayats about BJP sidelining their leaders,” said a KPCC office bearer in Belagavi.

What does this mean? According to him, the Lingayat vote bank is no longer a united front supporting the BJP. “The battles are now at the constituency level. Lingayat communities, especially some sub-sects like Ganikas are supporting a Lingayat candidate fielded by the Congress. Apart from that, we have managed to get several ground-level workers of BJP in Belagavi, Vijayapura and Bagalkot who can move some amount of votes to join us. Even if we are able to get some Lingayat votes, we will win,” she added.

The Bajrang Dal controversy threw a spanner in the works. The Congress manifesto said the party is committed to taking firm and decisive action against individuals and organisations spreading hatred among communities on grounds of caste and religion, including Bajrang Dal.

Valerian Rodrigues, a political observer and former professor at Mangalore University and Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, said that the issue came too late for it to change the current political narrative.

Even the Congress party claimed the issue will not change their fortunes, but the issue ended up providing a morale boost for the BJP, which was looking for a cause to rally their cadre.

“The impact of the issue can be debated but this came just before Prime Minister Modi began his rallies and the talk of double engine government wasn’t that effective. One of the reasons why his rallies and road shows were big successes was because the organisation used the Bajrang Dal issue to mobilise. The impact of this will be seen in the door-to-door campaigns,” said a senior BJP leader from south Bengaluru.

The Bharatiya Janata Party: The electorate has generally not preferred the party in power at the Centre to rule the state. This trend has been seen since 1972, when the Congress (I) came to power in Karnataka and not in the rest of the country. It continued when the Janata government came to power at the Centre and Karnataka again had Congress.

If the Ramakrishna Hegde-led Janata government was in power in Karnataka, the Rajiv Gandhi-led Congress formed the government at the Centre. The SM Krishna-led Congress government in 1999, saw the election of the Atal Behari Vajpayee-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government at the Centre.

Even though during the last Assembly term, the BJP ruled both state and Centre for three years, the government only came to power after defections from the opposition.

Ahead of the May 10 polls, out of ideas to counter the Congress’s well-oiled campaign, the BJP campaign heavily relied on PM Modi, who over the last two weeks has taken the burden of the campaign on his shoulders.

The party is also using the PM to amplify its attempts to create poll issues. The failed attempt to create a controversy over Sonia Gandhi using the phrase “sovereignty of Karnataka” is an example. Politics over controversial statements is often handled by the state leaders or even by the designated spokespersons of the party, however, within hours of Sonia Gandhi using the phrase, PM Modi tweeted it and also made a mention of it in his speeches.

Political analyst A Narayana said that the repetitive nature of the rallies and roadshows took away the excitement associated with such events, except among the die-hard BJP supporters. “At times, it came across as a desperate move of the ruling BJP, as the party had no credible state leader to present before the people and no major issue to flag,” he said.

The biggest draw for the BJP this time is the lack of a CM face. Since 2008, the BJP has approached the elections with a chief ministerial candidate, which in the last three elections was BS Yediyurappa. The party, however, has not shown similar confidence in his successor.

Basavaraj Bommai, the last CM, is not seen as a major political figure capable of winning votes for the party. Even though Yediyurappa continues to campaign for the party, his presence in this election has been limited, and he can’t become CM given the party’s rule to retire politicians older than 75.

However, multiple rallies by Yediyurappa or the prime minister can’t change the disappointment of a voter. Several incumbent MLAs facing pushback from voters unhappy over the lack of developments. According to BJP’s internal surveys, in constituencies represented by senior leaders like CT Ravi, S Sriramalu and Govid Karjol the party is facing severe anti-incumbency. “Covid and how the MLAs didn’t help still remain a topic of discussion in many of these constituencies,” said an analyst working for the BJP.

According to him, in the case of Bengaluru, which holds 28 seats, floods in 2020 are added to the list of problems faced by the BJP. “The MLA representing Mahadevapura which was worst hit by the flood was replaced by his wife. These political decisions could backfire for the BJP here,” he added.

Former chief minister Yediyurappa is however confident of a win. “I am telling you that we are going to get a minimum of 130 to 135 seats. After the elections, we are going to meet again. Whatever I said previously also had come true. Even now I am telling you that we are going to cross 130 to 135 seats and we are going to form the government," he said on the last day of campaigning.

The Janata Dal (Secular): In the Vokkaliga heartland, politics is personal. Umesh Gowda, a driver and ‘former JD(S) follower’ is unhappy with former chief minister HD Kumaraswamy. He recollects how a development project, which involved irrigation work, was “withdrawn” by Kumaraswamy when he was chief minister to “avenge his son’s defeat” in the Lok Sabha elections.

Sitting at a tea shop in Athahalli village in Mandya, he argues with his friend, Ramesh NK, who remains loyal to the Gowda family and in turn to the JD(S). Ramesh says these issues won’t affect voting, very few around him agree with him.

Mandya is a stronghold of the JD(S) where the party won seven out of the seven seats. But in several seats, including Nagamangala under which Athahalli comes, the party is facing anti-incumbency.

The fate of the JD(S) is crucial in Karnataka’s political landscape. If the regional party gets more than 35 seats, the chances of Congress or the BJP forming a government on their own reduces significantly. In the 2018 election, the JD(S) won 37 seats, and the community accounts for 11-14% of the state’s population. Six chief ministers of the state have hailed from the community, and 42 Vokkaliga MLAs were elected in the 2018 assembly elections, 23 from JD(S), 11 from Congress and eight from BJP.

The party also faces trouble from the increasing influence of the BJP in the Old Mysuru region. With several youths from the Vokkaliga community moving towards the Hindutva ideology, the party is facing a crisis in the upcoming election.

Over the past year, the BJP, a dominant force in northern Karnataka, has raked up Hindutva issues in the region. PM Modi has visited the region multiple times, announced development projects for the region, and constantly invoked the valour of the 16th-century Vokkaliga chieftain Kempegowda. He even installed a giant statue of him outside the Bengaluru airport. BJP leaders have attempted to give a communal colour to many issues, including Tipu Sultan’s rule.

According to Nyame Gowda, a former government servant and former JD(S) office bearer in Mandya, the BJP’s push in the region would affect the JD(S) more than the Congress.

“There is no doubt that people are unhappy with the sitting MLAs. The rivalry between Congress and JD(S) is old here. So, anyone leaving the JD(S) will not vote for the Congress, but BJP. The BJP may not win many seats here but they will get enough votes to make their presence felt,” he added.

A JD(S) leader in Mandya said that that party had requested former prime minister HD Gowda to campaign in the district extensively towards the end of the campaign. “We are at a position where we can lose seats. We are at the top. In some seats, we have tough fights. So, if anything can work in our favour it will be the presence of the senior Gowda,” he said.

As per a survey by Lokniti-Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) 2,143 randomly selected voters from across 21 randomly selected assembly constituencies found that Vokkaligas appear to be divided mainly between the Congress and JD(S).

Among them, 34% said they supported the Congress and 36% were in favour of the JD(S). It was the consolidation of Vokkaliaga votes that led to a Congress seat tally coming below 20 and JD(S) going beyond 30 seats in the region in 2018. The trend is likely to see a shift if the sentiments on the ground are to be believed.

But Kumaraswamy remains confident. According to him, the party will cross the 40 seats mark in the upcoming election. “We have gained a lot of traction as we focused on groundwork well before the state switched into poll mode. Those who said JD(S) will not win more than 15 seats are now saying that the party can win around 40 seats. We will win more than that this year,” he said.