Pitfalls of IMD's seasonal monsoon forecasts | Number Theory

The India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) monsoon forecasts, HT reported on April 16, have less accuracy than predicting a coin toss. A more careful reading of the forecasts shows that this is only a part of the problem with IMD’s forecasting. Forecasting errors are bigger in El Niño years than La Niña or neutral conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Niño and La Niña are cyclical warming/cooling conditions in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean which decrease/increase southwest monsoon rainfall. Also, IMD’s second forecast, which is made one and a half month after the first one, is as likely to be wrong as the first one. Here is a detailed explanation.