Number Theory: Regional dynamics in West Bengal politics
Even a small swing of voters from the TMC to BJP in Burdwan and Junglemahal sub-regions could help the BJP reclaim its 2019 advantage in these two regions.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) winning 18 of the 42 parliamentary constituencies (PCs) in West Bengal was one of the biggest surprises in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The BJP won just two PCs in state the 2014 elections, which was also the best ever tally for the party till then. While the 2019 election results in West Bengal generated a lot of traction for the BJP’s campaign in the 2021 assembly election, the final results were disappointing for the party with its seat share falling from 42.9% in 2019 to just 26.2% in 2021 (with the usual caveat of state elections being different from national ones). Will the 2024 elections see a repeat of the 2021 results or can the BJP come closer to or perhaps better its 2019 performance in the state? Understanding the regional dynamics in West Bengal’s politics is important to answer this question. Here is what an HT analysis shows.
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- InferenceThe numbers given above show that the final outcome of the 2024 contest in West Bengal will depend on two factors. Even a small swing of voters from the TMC to BJP in Burdwan and Junglemahal sub-regions could help the BJP reclaim its 2019 advantage in these two regions. However, as long as the TMC can maintain its Muslim consolidation in the Central Bengal sub-region and its overall dominance in the South Bengal sub-region, it will be difficult for the BJP to edge past it in the state. Perhaps this is what explains the BJP’s relentless attacks on the Sandeshkhali issue (in South Bengal) and TMC’s refusal to strike an alliance with the Congress and the Left in the state.Click Here
