Number Theory: Is BJP's poll footprint evolving?

In 2014, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) became the first political party to win a Lok Sabha majority in the country since 1984. It replicated this feat in the 2019 elections, clearly establishing itself as the dominant political force in the country. This national dominance notwithstanding, the BJP’s performance in state elections after 2014 has often been subpar compared to its Lok Sabha showings. The gap in the BJP’s performance in national and state elections has often been described as a national premium for the party, which is also seen as linked with a preference for Narendra Modi as Prime Minister. The 2024 Lok Sabha elections questioned this narrative when the BJP was unable to reach the halfway mark. Additionally, its performance, in terms of seats, in some state elections which have been held after the 2024 Lok Sabha has been better than its Lok Sabha showing in terms of seats. Does this mean that the national vote share premium is shifting? Here is what the data shows.