Number Theory: How will tariffs hit India in the medium term?

By announcing tariffs on all countries Donald Trump has delivered a seismic shock to the global economy as we know it today. It remains to be seen whether Trump continues these tariffs or uses them to negotiate what he believes can be better terms for the US in merchandise trade. Either way, restoration of status quo ante seems extremely unlikely at the moment. If this triggers a full-blown trade war – China for example has already announced retaliatory tariffs on US exports – things could become even worse. How will all this impact the Indian economy? No analyst is willing to give a hard estimate of this and for good reason. Given the massive disruption to global value chains and the possibility of individual countries trying to negotiate with the US, things are in a state of flux right now. However, there is another way to look at this question which suggests that India stands to lose more from second order effects than from higher tariffs.