The message from Bengaluru
Karnataka’s caste survey poses political and legal challenges — its impact will be felt beyond the state
The controversial Karnataka caste survey, expected to be discussed by the state cabinet later this week, has the potential to fracture the polity and induce tremors in political parties, particularly the Congress that holds office in Bengaluru. The survey suggests that the share of the OBCs in the state’s population is higher than previously estimated. Two communities that dominate the polity — the Lingayats and Vokkaligas — are smaller than currently estimated, according to the survey. Deft political and administrative manoeuvring will be necessary for policies to reflect the new caste/community reality since many powerful social groups are unlikely to accept the survey’s findings.
Karnataka follows a complex reservation policy with sub-categories balancing the interests of the numerous OBC groups and Dalit communities. However, the census provides accurate numbers only for SCs, STs and religious minorities; the numbers/percentages ascribed to other groups are based on projections and assumptions, which, if the caste survey is to be trusted, have underestimated the share of OBCs in the population. Dominant communities have justified their claims for leadership, representation, and sharing of resources based on what seems to be inflated numbers, which will now be challenged. The survey is nothing short of a political minefield — one that could upend politics in the state for starters.
Politically, the survey strengthens the claims of OBC groups vis-a-vis the Lingayats, Vokkaligas and Brahmins who have dominated state politics since its formation in 1956. The report recommends raising reservation for OBCs to 51% from the current 32%. A hike in OBC quota and a proportional increase in the Muslim quota (the report recommends 8% instead of the existing 4%) is not just politically fraught but also poses a legal conundrum since it will take reservations (in employment and education) to 75% (add another 10% for EWS), which is way above the 50% limit set by the Supreme Court in the Indra Sawhney judgment. Of course, multiple state administrations have breached this limit and have pleaded before the apex court to reconsider its 1992 verdict.
The Karnataka caste survey, in principle, fits in with Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s current obsession with proportional representation for OBCs. However, the party’s state unit is more of a rainbow of castes, interest groups and communities, which can unravel if it pushes hard with the survey. In the 1970s, the Congress under Devraj Urs embraced Ahinda (named after the Kannada acronym for minorities, OBCs and Dalits) politics to win office — present chief minister Siddaramaiah has revived this paradigm with some success. However, politics has only become more competitive since the 1970s and attempts to rejig quotas will entail a political cost. And its resonance may well be felt beyond the borders of Karnataka.
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