Reconfiguring ties with Russia

Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov’s statement in Moscow that preparations are underway for President Vladimir Putin’s travel to India is yet another indication that Moscow intends to go ahead with this important visit after a gap of almost two years. Putin has not been to India since the start of the Ukraine war while Prime Minister Narendra Modi travelled to Russia twice last year. Lavrov painted an optimistic picture of bilateral ties, especially in the trade sector, and lauded India’s position on the Russia-Ukraine conflict at a time when complex negotiations are going on to halt the fighting. However, there is still no clarity on when Putin intends to come to India, and it appears unlikely the visit will happen in the first half of 2025.

Russia’s indications about going ahead with Putin’s visit, also given by other senior officials in recent times, are tied to a growing realisation of the need to refresh the relationship with India, which has coasted along for far too long on the impetus provided by Moscow’s role as a strategic partner and supplier of military hardware to New Delhi over a long period. Trade has swelled to almost $60 billion a year on the back of India’s massive purchases of Russian energy but remains lop-sided as India’s exports have languished at around $5 billion. Both sides now need to come up with a framework purpose-built for the changing geopolitical scenario that helps deepen the strategic partnership while simultaneously making the trade relationship more broad-based and diverse, including greater market access for Indian goods. While Russia will retain an important position as a defence supplier in the coming years, its security and technology cooperation with India does not have the heft that India-US cooperation in this sphere has acquired.

The uncertainty created by the whimsical policies of the Donald Trump administration in the US is another imperative for India to boost its relations with long-standing friends such as Russia and new partners in Europe and Asia. The churn set off by Trump’s decisions is set to continue for the foreseeable future, and this underscores the need for Delhi to look elsewhere to shore up its own position.

India has so far adroitly managed its relationship with Russia even while forging increasingly closer security and trade ties in the past two decades with the US, the historically different poles in world order. Clearly, the ghosts of the Cold War have been buried. Over the past few years, the world has become truly multipolar and to New Delhi’s benefit perhaps, with Washington, Moscow, the European Union (EU), even Beijing all wooing India. It is of course good to balance these relations while hedging all bets in a time of great global churn, which allows more space for middle and aspiring powers such as India to take on a greater role in global affairs.

New Delhi’s smart reading of the Ukraine crisis, where it refused to endorse Russia’s invasion while engaging with Moscow on trade, and its willingness more recently to negotiate with the US on the tariff front rather than adopt a confrontationist position are likely to help India navigate the current choppy phase in global politics better. And while India has begun the process of normalising its relations with China following last year’s understanding on troop withdrawal at the Line of Actual Control, there is a need for New Delhi to ensure that Moscow is not drawn into Beijing’s orbit. With adequate time in hand to prepare for Putin’s visit, New Delhi and Moscow must ensure a list of deliverables and a template for a futuristic India-Russia relationship.