For a heavily agriculture-dependent population, the India Meteorological Department (IMD)’s prediction of above normal monsoon this year would normally be good news, with obvious implications for harvest. That, in turn, has significant import for both rural consumption and food prices in the country. But it would be pragmatic to temper expectations given  IMD’s poor record on accuracy — a Hindustan Times analysis shows the accuracy of IMD’s first forecasts is a low 42%, lower than the chances of correctly calling a coin toss.

For a heavily agriculture-dependent population, the India Meteorological Department (IMD)’s prediction of above normal monsoon this year would normally be good news, with obvious implications for harvest. That, in turn, has significant import for both rural consumption and food prices in the country. But it would be pragmatic to temper expectations given  IMD’s poor record on accuracy — a Hindustan Times analysis shows the accuracy of IMD’s first forecasts is a low 42%, lower than the chances of correctly calling a coin toss.

Even if the rainfall were to be adequate and IMD spared another off-mark forecast — private sector weather forecaster Skymet predicts a normal monsoon — the headline number means little given that the spatial and temporal distribution of rain has been erratic over the past few years. This is likely indicative of the climate crisis unfolding. To illustrate, over half of the country either received excessive or deficient rainfall last year, and certain areas saw excessive rainfall over a short window, with devastating impact.

To that end, states and local governments need to put in place action plans to contain adverse impacts of either extreme (excess or deficiency). Deluge and drought can affect crop yields, cause significant damage in terms of the infrastructure and human toll they extract, and result in serious economic pain, not just for the farming community but beyond. Flood planning, ensuring efficient drainage for checking run-off losses, preventing flooding, and recharging groundwater as well as bolstering storage capacity will be the focus areas to take care of immediate impacts. In the long run, states must work on expanding their irrigation network to make agriculture less monsoon-dependent. The country needs a new monsoon management vision given current realities.