India must walk with Kyiv, and Moscow

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Ukraine will be followed very closely by India’s interlocutors in the West and Russia, given that it comes after his trip to Moscow a little more than a month ago for the summit with President Vladimir Putin. Images of Modi embracing Putin on the day a Russian strike hit Kyiv’s largest children’s hospital and the visit coinciding with the NATO Summit in Washington triggered outrage in the West and Ukraine. The trip to Ukraine has already generated considerable speculation about any role that India could play in the ongoing efforts to find a peaceful resolution to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

The Indian side has been loath to take on any role in directly mediating between the two warring countries though it has indicated that it can help by passing messages between the two sides. The Ukrainian side has already said one of the main topics for discussion is President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s ten-point peace formula, which calls for withdrawal of Russian forces and restoration of borders, and urged India to take on a greater role, as the voice of the Global South, in peace efforts based on the formula. This is a tough ask, given that India is not keen on doing anything that is seen as going against Russia, one of its oldest strategic partners and a key supplier of defence hardware and energy.

Much as India enjoys the benefits of its friendship with Russia, the emerging Russia-China no-limits relationship has become a source of concern in New Delhi. Ties with Moscow may be leveraged against Beijing-caused heartburn, but Russia remains an unequal partner to China, something that India must hedge against. And, it must assure the West, that it remains committed to peace and democracy.