India has said IWT will remain in abeyance till Pakistan “credibly and irrevocably” ends its support for cross-border terrorism, and while the country may not immediately be able to store the water from the Indus and its tributaries, given the absence of any large dams upstream, experts believe it will still be able to divert the water, wreaking havoc downstream in Pakistan. New Delhi has never reneged on the treaty, and the fact that it has now threatened to, only shows its resolve to get Islamabad and Rawalpindi — Pakistan has two asymmetric power centres — to listen. The suspension of IWT— brokered by the World Bank to divide the six rivers of the Indus Basin between the two countries — may not have the spectacular element of a surgical strike across the Line of Control or International Border but its long-term implications for Pakistan could be far more serious. Almost 80% of the water in the Indus Basin originates from the three western rivers — Indus, Jhelum and Chenab — which were allocated to Pakistan under the treaty, and the country’s agricultural heartland is dependent on the predictable supply of water from these rivers. If their flow falls, Pakistan’s agricultural and hydropower sectors could face immense problems.

While commenting on India’s punitive measures, Pakistan’s defence minister Khawaja Asif condemned terrorism occurring in India and elsewhere — absent in the initial response from Islamabad. For far too long, Pakistan’s politicians and sections of the public have turned a blind eye to their military’s close links with a wide range of terrorist groups, including Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), one of whose proxies has claimed the attack in Pahalgam.

India must now follow up its threats with action, not just by targeting terrorist hubs in Pakistan, but also coming up with a plan quickly to divert waters of the three western rivers. Pakistan has never been a good listener, but there’s no doubting that it will feel the pain.