A MEGA push for India-US ties
Trump-Modi meeting in Washington scores high on bilateral trade, technology and energy collaborations
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s first meeting with President Donald Trump in his second term produced numerous outcomes that overwhelmingly point to continuity in the overall arc of the India-US relationship, especially in the key areas of defence, trade and the technology partnership. This is significant in view of the turbulence seen in the US’s relations with other long-standing partners around the world. Modi’s calculated gamble to refresh his relationship with Trump in the early days of the latter’s second presidency, and the Indian side’s focus on the transactional aspect of the American leader’s character, appear to have paid off. Keeping in mind the signals emanating from Washington ahead of the visit about buying more US-made weaponry, India signalled its intention to procure or co-produce hardware such as the Javelin anti-tank missile, Stryker combat vehicles and six more P-8I maritime patrol aircraft. In trade, the two countries aim to finalise the first part of a bilateral trade agreement by the third quarter and the Indian side has spoken of the possibility of energy purchases from the US being ramped up from $15 billion a year to $25 billion. With Trump continuing to complain about India’s tariff structure at both his media engagements with Modi, all these steps will help address the American leader’s perceived concerns related to trade with India, although much depends on the details of the “reciprocal” tariffs the US will impose after April 1.
However, even here, there were signals of continuity with a recommitment to deepen supply chain integration and enhance market access with an eye to more than double overall trade to $500 billion by 2030, up from the current $200 billion. Building on work done in the waning days of the Biden administration, the two sides will work out bilateral arrangements on civil liability and collaboration to build US-designed reactors and work on small modular reactors. In the crucial field of emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), semiconductors and defence technology, the new TRUST (Transforming the Relationship Utilising Strategic Technology) mechanism seems more of a rebranding of the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET) launched with the Biden administration. One can thus expect the two sides to build on work already done within the rubric of iCET and amplify it through new measures such as the roadmap on accelerating AI infrastructure and an innovation bridge between industry and academia to drive research in space and emerging technologies. Other significant outcomes include the pledge to address regulations and export controls holding up the transfer of military equipment and sensitive technologies, the closer alignment of the pharmaceutical sectors of both countries and the acceleration of cooperation on rare earths. New Delhi can also draw comfort from the US’s endorsement of India’s role as a security provider in the Indian Ocean region and the pledge to build new partnerships in the western Indian Ocean, West Asia and Indo-Pacific to bolster defence and technology cooperation with an eye on China.
Despite this good start with the Trump administration, there is absolutely no room for complacency on the Indian side. It will also have to ensure that the US doesn’t strong-arm India into buying defence equipment such as the F-35 combat jets (as Trump suggested it may), which might not be the ideal fit for the armed forces. Equally crucial will be trade agreements that ensure that the interests of domestic industry and the agriculture sector are protected. Given Trump’s talk about building on relations with China and President Xi Jinping, New Delhi will have to ensure that Washington is in the loop about India’s continuing concerns in this regard. But then, well begun is half done.
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