The Iran that finalised JCPOA in 2015 is very different from the one that is set to hold talks with Trump’s negotiators in Oman this weekend. Iran has been greatly diminished by developments in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen, where its proxy militias have suffered humiliating defeats, thereby lowering Tehran’s standing in West Asia. Despite these setbacks, however, there is good reason for drawing Iran back into nuclear talks — experts believe Tehran could soon have enough weapons-grade uranium to make a nuclear warhead since it has continued enriching uranium fuel without the restrictions and inspections that were in place under JCPOA.

Ahead of the upcoming negotiations in Oman, Trump has held out the threat of direct US military action against Iran, apart from reinstating his “maximum pressure” policy. He has said Iran will be in “great danger” if the talks aren’t successful. The problem is Trump hasn’t delivered so far on any of his grand foreign policy promises, including ending the wars in Ukraine and Gaza and stopping the activities of Houthi rebels in Yemen. Instead, his whimsical approach to the Ukraine crisis has emboldened Russia and his tariffs have led to global economic chaos. New Delhi will be keenly watching as any adverse fallout of the negotiations with Iran in West Asia will have significant ramifications for the region.