Why IPL expanding to 94 matches will have to wait

Mumbai: The Indian Premier League’s growth trajectory has been phenomenal. Every media rights revision has exceeded expectations with continuing demand among investors to join the elite club of IPL franchise owners.

“In such a short span of time, it has become the number two sporting league in the world. We want to take that legacy forward and make sure that in times to come, IPL becomes the No.1 sporting league,” IPL chairman Arun Dhumal told HT on Saturday as the 18th edition of IPL got underway.

Lofty ambition it may be, but BCCI is not in a hurry. NFL, the world’s leading sporting league in the US is played over an 18-week window spanning 272 matches and involving 32 teams. Its latest media rights deal was reportedly worth $110 billion for 11 years. To achieve such a scale, IPL would require a comparable window to begin with and a similar talent pool. Neither are readily available. The economics needs to add up too. The next round of IPL media rights sale too could become challenging with the merger of Disney Star and Viacom 18.

As per the 2023-27 media rights tender, a total of 410 matches are to be played in the cycle with the final year to expand to a 94-match league. IPL has decided to stick to 74 matches this year and indications are that this is how it will remain for the remainder of the cycle – a projected shortfall of 40 matches and ₹4,720 crore media rights earnings.

“For 94 games, either you need a bigger window, or you will end up having more double-headers,” Dhumal said.

Not swamping the schedule with double headers is an important consideration for the broadcaster. JioHotstar currently pays ₹118 crore per match. An afternoon match registers poor viewership; it goes down by as much as 40% compared to evening prime time viewing. A dip in viewership impacts sponsorship and the revenue chain.

“Given that we had the Champions Trophy this year and WPL, there was no window. Going forward, if we have a bigger window and keeping the interest of all stakeholders in mind, we will take a call,” Dhumal added.

Given IPL’s commercial appeal in the cricket ecosystem and BCCI’s clout, the playing window has gone up to 65 days this year.

The tribe of freelance players is still small and India’s cricketers, the crucial cog in the IPL wheel, are on international duty round the year. The calendar is still dictated by ICC white-ball world events played annually and the World Test Championship.

“Technically, you could go up to 12 teams also with the current format. It’s not (just) a number of matches question,” said Sanjog Gupta, JioStar CEO-Sports.

Under the current IPL format, rather than each team play the other home and away, a team plays five others twice and four others once, allowing for marquee clashes.

“It depends on 8-10 factors which are all inter-linked,” Gupta said. “It is about the window, depth of talent, squad size, big auction and how much churn there will be in playing groups, is it the same teams playing 94 matches or are you looking at additional matches. Every time IPL has expanded, there has been a dip. Even the first time it expanded there was a dip. It takes a lot to grow back.”

Voices from both the broadcaster and the BCCI suggest that even though India’s cricket consumption story keeps growing, breaking viewership records, a fresh round of IPL expansion may not be round the corner.

“Definitely, a lot of people want to own teams given the successful business model. If you look at the last team auction, there is lot of value addition that has happened. So, there is a lot of interest from investors. But we have to look at the larger picture and keep in mind what works best for the league,” Dhumal said.