Swing and a case to change the tactic of chasing at this World Cup

Perhaps more than any other, cricket is a sport beholden to the conditions in which it is played. The host country, the weather on any given day, and anything down to the particular soil in the pitch, can wildly affect the spectacle.

This whirlwind of contributing factors means that individual competitions can have very distinct personalities. The difference between the 2021 T20 World Cup in the UAE (low bounce, huge chasing bias, an entire tournament played on three grounds) and the Australian equivalent 12 months later (huge grounds, steepling bounce, wider range of conditions from venue to venue) was vast.

With India the sole host country for the 2023 ODI World Cup, the default analysis was that spin would dominate. To an extent, that has been the case; 44% of deliveries in this tournament have been bowled by spinners, well up on the last two World Cups in Australia, New Zealand, and England. The average for those spinners, 35 runs per wicket, is also far better than the last two tournaments.

However, it’s not been the defining story of the competition when it comes to conditions. This edition has so far seen an average of 1.0° of swing in the first 10 overs of the innings. If you compare that to the 2019 tournament, swing has increased by 49%. If you compare it to 2011, the last time India hosted a World Cup, it’s up 56%. That’s an enormous increase in one of the most fundamental threats in white-ball cricket.

It’s a pattern we have seen replicated in ODI cricket in general. In 2023, the new ball has swung an average of 0.99° degree, the most for any calendar year on record (going back to 2006). Even in T20s, Powerplay swing this year (0.9°) is the most we have seen in the ball-tracking era. Most industry experts have suggested this uptick is due to the batch of balls in circulation right now, which feels eminently believable given how comprehensive the change is in such a wide range of conditions.

Other observations around swing – a semi-mystical, mythologised thing at the best of times – are less easy to back up. Onlookers have suggested that in day-night matches throughout this tournament, and in ODIs in general, the new ball can move more under lights. While that may be true in certain circumstances, as an overall pattern it’s hard to see any substantial change. In fact, the actual amount of swing in each innings is almost uncannily similar, 0.95° in the first innings and 0.94° in the second.

We are still dealing with relatively small sample sizes in this World Cup, so nothing is watertight. Some bowlers and bowling attacks simply aren’t trying to swing the ball, so it’s not always a case of physical conditions being the main driving factor. Yet it’s curious that the only venue where we have seen the new ball swing significantly more in the second is Chennai, and that every other venue has seen a drop in new ball swing in the second innings of the match. Particularly when seamers under lights – with new ball in hand – have been devastatingly effective.

By far, the new ball has been far more effective in the second innings. In the first, quick bowlers in Powerplay 1 have been averaging just north of 50, but in the second that average has fallen to 30. Over 16 matches, that’s a significant gulf.

What’s apparent is not that the ball is swinging more under lights, but that the swing itself is harder to play. Swinging deliveries with the new ball in the first innings are averaging 128 in this World Cup; in the second, that drops to 24. It’s a simple proposition, but during the twilight period – where the artificial lights have taken effect but the natural light is clinging on – it's just harder to see the ball, and particularly hard to see the moving ball.

So, what does this mean for the rest of the tournament? Well, for those teams with particularly skilled new ball attacks – or for those bowling attacks whose threat is very frontloaded - there must be a temptation to move away from the template of opting to chase.

In the 16 games we have seen so far, 12 have seen the side winning the toss choosing to bowl. But if the challenge of facing the new ball under lights remains so significant, then deliberately avoiding batting in those conditions seems sensible, as does the move to have the ball in hand through that period.

However, once that movement disappears, if your bowlers have failed to make the most of that phase, then bowling becomes tough. With dew around at several venues, batting can suddenly become a slicker, calmer occupation, so switching to a bat-first tactic is not without risk. As with everything in this game, as conditions move in one direction, there’s always a counter force dragging it back.