ICC World Cup 2019: Qualification scenarios - Road to semi-finals for different teams
This World Cup needs to thank Sri Lanka for opening up the entire table when they inflicted a shock defeat on England at Leeds. This has now thrown open many interesting scenarios.
Pakistan increased their chances of qualification with the win against South Africa. Also, along with Afghanistan, South Africa officially became the second side to be knocked out of the tournament.
This World Cup needs to thank Sri Lanka for opening up the entire table when they inflicted a shock defeat on England at Leeds. This has now thrown open many interesting scenarios. ( Complete coverage of ICC Cricket World Cup 2019)
We take a look at the most realistic scenarios:
Teams which could be the semi-finalists
New Zealand and India are the only sides to be unbeaten in the campaign so far. While New Zealand top the table with 5 wins from 6 matches, India have won 4 out of their 5th match. The Kiwis are one win away from securing their berth, while India need two more wins.
Kohli’s boys are scheduled to play England, West Indies, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh and hence, winning two matches should not be too taxing for them.
Australia too have been having a good tournament and barring the blip against India, they have looked to be a team in form. They are slated to play against England, New Zealand and South Africa and need to win one more match to guarantee qualification. However, if they stay on 10 points, they would then hope that Sri Lanka lose at least two of their remaining fixtures, and Bangladesh and Pakistan lose at least one match.
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England - What about it?
The number 1 side, the firm favourites and also the side which has lost to Pakistan and Sri Lanka. They are now scheduled to face India, New Zealand and Australia, the in-form sides, and if they lose all the three matches, they remain stranded on 8 points and they could be ousted from the league stage.
However, even if they win one more match, their qualification is not guaranteed, although it does increase. If Sri Lanka win all their remaining three matches, they can finish with 12 points and overtake England.
What if they stay on 8 points:
They can qualify if:
--> Sri Lanka lose all their remaining matches
--> Pakistan and Bangladesh get defeated in at least two of their remaining games
--> West Indies lose one
Sri Lanka
6 points from 6 matches and the win against England gave them a massive shot in the arm. They have to play 3 more matches and they will be against
South Africa, West Indies and India. These matches won’t be easy, but they have the possibility of finishing with 12 points if they win all the three matches.
However, if they end on 10 points, they will have to sit and wait and hope England lose all their remaining matches, Bangladesh do not win more than two and Pakistan lose at least one.
They will be eliminated, if they do not win any of their matches.
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Bangladesh
2 wins from 6 matches and they have to face Afghanistan, India and Pakistan. If they win all their matches, they will finish with 11 points and can still qualify if:
Sri Lanka lose all their remaining matches
England win not win more than one.
West Indies
Three points from six games and have three more matches against India, Sri Lanka and Afghanistan.
Well, even if they win all their remaining matches, they will still hope England lose all their matches and, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka win not more than one each and Pakistan lose at least two.
Pakistan
Their campaign is very similar to 1992. They won against South Africa which means that are now with 5 points from 6 matches. They now face New Zealand, Bangladesh and Afghanistan. If they win all the three matches, they will end with 11 points and then hope England do not win more than one and Bangladesh and Sri Lanka lose at least one match.
