Which way is Western Maharashtra headed on June 4?

Various Exit polls that came out after the final stage of voting on June 1 suggest that Maharashtra’s western region, which has ten Lok Sabha seats up for grabs, may provide varied results. The BJP-Shiv Sena coalition had won seven of the ten seats in 2019, but the realignment of political forces has changed arithmetic, with MVA this time aiming to reclaim its lost ground in Western Maharashtra, even as exit polls are giving Mahayuti an edge here. 

Exit polls suggest that the outcome in Western Maharashtra may be a mixed bag, reflecting the uncertainty and volatility characterising the region’s political scenario. While the Mahayuti alliance, comprising the BJP, Shiv Sena and National Congress Party (NCP), is anticipated to lose its stronghold in some areas, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), led by the Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT), and NCP (SP), is also expected to have upper hand in upcoming results. 

As per the exit poll projections by ABP C Voter, BJP, Shiv Sena and NCP are likely to get one seat each, while on the other hand, MVA members NCP SP and Congress are likely to get 4 and 2 seats respectively. At the same time, one seat from Western Maharashtra is shown going to independent. 

The India Today-Axis poll says Mahayuti is likely to get five seats and MVA is likely to get 4 seats while one seat will go independent. On a similar line, LokShahi Exit Polls predicted that Maha Yuti would get 4 seats and MVA would get 6 seats and an independent candidate would win one seat. 

According to city-based political analyst Mahesh Sane, exit polls tend to reflect the trends, however, actual numbers may vary as per local undercurrents. He further said the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is likely to see gains in 7 states, while its seat share may drop in 4 states.  

“Regarding Western Maharashtra, the BJP-led NDA is likely to secure seven seats out of 10. It seems that opposition parties failed to catch anti-incumbency against the government. Also, triangular fights at many seats may help the BJP. However, these are the only projections; we must wait till the outcome of the results to get a detailed analysis. 

The MVA is hoping to reclaim its lost ground in Western Maharashtra. Their campaign has focused on issues such as agrarian distress, unemployment, and development, resonating with many voters in the region. 

Conversely, the Mahayuti alliance is banking on its track record of governance, promises of further development, and a strong organisational structure to retain its dominance in certain pockets of Western Maharashtra. The BJP and Shiv Sena have campaigned vigorously, highlighting their achievements and rallying support around their vision for the state’s progress. 

The contest in the region is further complicated by the presence of smaller parties and independent candidates, whose performance could potentially sway the outcome in either direction. 

Political observers said, after the split in Shiv Sena and NCP, this is the first election where both parties are taking on each other to the battleground. Hence dominance in Western Maharashtra is important for their presence in the region and to regain its past glory ahead of the upcoming legislative assembly elections. 

As the electorate eagerly awaits the results on June 4, the stage is set for a closely fought battle that could have far-reaching implications for Maharashtra’s political landscape. The outcome in Western Maharashtra will not only shape the distribution of power in the state but also provide valuable insights into the prevailing political mood and preferences of the electorate.