Uncertainty over monsoon revival in August: Experts

Pune: After a week-long interval, there are chances of rainfall activity between August 18 to 24 in parts of Maharashtra. However, the precipitation intensity is likely to be light to moderate. There is uncertainty about the monsoon revival in the State and some areas might be impacted adversely due to reduced rainfall in coming days, weather experts said.

The southwest monsoon entered the break phase at the beginning of August, following a period of intense activity in July. However, much to the worry of farmers, meteorological experts are sceptical about the resumption of rains in Maharashtra in the second half of August.

Models suggest weak monsoon may continue for another 8-10 days or so, and El Nino is impacting the conditions. Subsequently, a revival is expected but with uncertainty, according to weather expert Madhavan Rajeevan.

Vineet Kumar, a former researcher at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) said, August rain is likely to be below normal and Pune, Nashik district is likely to see a significant shortfall this month.

Vidarbha and adjoining areas may experience some rainfall activities between 18 to 24 August but the intensity will be low, said an official from the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

Worrisome conditions in Marathwada

Decreased rainfall activities in the state have adversely affected the Marathawada region as many districts in the region are experiencing a large deficit in August.

“The Madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada sub-divisions are expected to receive normal to below-normal rainfall for the remainder of the month. There is very little chance of good rainfall in the second half of August,” said K A Hosalikar, head of IMD Pune.

As per the data, the Marathwada meteorological sub-division is experiencing the highest rainfall deficit (89% between August 1 to 11). If this situation continues in the upcoming days, it will be difficult conditions for farmers.