Shivajinagar seat: Congress keen to recover lost ground amid BJP’s attempts to retain it

Once known to be bastion of the undivided Shiv Sena and later of the Congress, Shivajinagar assembly seat went to the Bharatiya Janata Party in 2014 when the latter contested the polls without Sena as an ally. Over the past 10 years, the situation has evolved and the current political scenario in the constituency is shaping up to be chaotic with multiple aspirants aiming to be in the fray.

During the 2019 state polls, BJP candidate Siddharth Shirole secured a narrow victory by just 5,000 votes, while in the recently held Lok Sabha polls in May 2024, the party’s lead further dwindled to a mere 3,500 votes from this segment suggesting that the forthcoming assembly election could be a tight race with no clear winner in sight.

This time, the primary contest appears to be between the BJP’s candidate from the Mahayuti alliance and the Congress candidate representing the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). However, there has been recent speculation from the Nationalist Congress Party’s (NCP) Sharad Pawar faction, which has expressed interest in contesting the seat.

Meanwhile, Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) also plans to field its candidate from the seat while Prakash Ambedkar-led Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) may not be behind. Put together, it may be another layer of complexity to the evolving political scenario.

From the BJP, sitting MLA Shirole is expected to be the party’s candidate once again even as others are also aspiring for party nomination.

Shirole has maintained strong connections with the voters here over the past five years, making him a likely choice. However, another BJP aspirant, Sunny Nimhan, has been actively preparing for a potential candidacy. Nimhan, the son of former MLA Vinayak Nimhan, has foothold in parts of Shivajinagar and Kothrud areas, and there is speculation that if he doesn’t secure the BJP ticket, he might consider joining the MVA.

On the Congress side, two main contenders, Datta Bahirat and Manish Anand, are vying for the ticket. Bahirat, who narrowly lost in the last election by 5,000 votes, is confident about his chances this time around.

He pointed to the shift in voter sentiment and the alliance with Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thackeray faction) as key factors that could swing the vote in his favour. Bahirat also notes that the VBA factor, which was significant in the previous election, is no longer a concern, potentially giving the MVA an edge.

“During 2019, I lost by very close margin of 5,000 votes when 11 corporators had joined the BJP and Narendra Modi wave was there. Despite that I had made remarkable performance. Now, Shiv Sena (UBT) is with us while at the same time factors like VBA is absent to dent our vote bank. I have worked hard in the last five years to recover the pockets where we had received less votes. Considering the MVA’s performance in Lok Sabha, it is clear that the voters’ mindset has been changing. I am sure that this time MVA will make victory in Shivajinagar,” said Bahirat.

Sitting MLA Shirole, on the other hand, is equally optimistic. He believes that his consistent presence in the constituency and the BJP’s strong organisational network will help secure another term. Shirole emphasised his connection with voters and the development work undertaken during his tenure, which he believes will resonate with the electorate.

“I do not find any reason for denial of ticket to me by the party. I have maintained good connect with voters in last five years. My presence was always there in the assembly constituency and voters are also appreciating it. During the Lok Sabha polls too, we maintained the lead here. I am sure that because of the party’s network, my connect with voters, and the development works, voters would definitely give me a chance,” said Shirole.

Meanwhile, both Nimhan and Anand have been actively engaging with voters over the past year, organising events, and making their political aspirations known. Their efforts are aimed at solidifying their positions within their respective parties and among voters.

Adding to the arena, NCP (SP) leaders Nilesh Nikam and Shrikant Patil have urged Sharad Pawar to stake a claim for the Shivajinagar seat, which is currently held by the Congress as per previous seat sharing formula. However, the chances of this seat being allocated to the NCP seem slim, given the existing political dynamics.

For the BJP, a significant advantage comes from Ajit Pawar’s alignment with the Mahayuti, as he holds influence in parts of the Shivajinagar constituency.

The caste dynamics in the constituency are also at play, with nearly 30% of the electorate being Maratha voters. Given the current state-level political scenario, there is speculation that both the Mahayuti and Congress might field Maratha candidates to balance the caste equation.

As the election approaches, the picture in Shivajinagar remains fluid, with multiple factors influencing the eventual outcome. The battle for this seat is expected to be one of the most closely watched in the region, as both alliances gear up for what promises to be a hard-fought contest.