Rebels may play spoilsport in 36 of 70 seats in western Maha

PUNE: As the state assembly elections draw near, leaders from both the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) and Mahayuti alliances are holding massive rallies across western Maharashtra but rebels (18 from MVA and 16 from Mahayuti) may play spoilsport in as many as 36 out of 70 seats in this region threatening to undermine the official candidates of both alliances. So much so that on Tuesday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi held rallies in two districts having the highest rebel presence – Pune with 10 rebel candidates and Solapur with eight rebel candidates in the fray.

In Shirdi, revenue minister Radhakrishna Vikhe-Patil from Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is facing not only Prabhavati Ghogre from Congress but also Rajendra Pipada, rebel candidate from his own party (BJP). In Jat, BJP’s Gopichand Padalkar is up against not only Congress’s Vikram Singh Sawant but also rebel candidate from his own party (BJP), Tamman Gounda Patil. In Wai, Shiv Sena’s Purushottam Jadhav, now contesting as an independent, is running against NCP’s Makrand Patil and SP’s Aunadevin Pisal.

In Solapur north, BJP’s former city mayor Shobha Banshetti is running against BJP’s Lingayat leader Vijaykumar Deshmukh and could divide the Lingayat vote, weakening Deshmukh’s prospects. Meanwhile in Purandar (Pune district), NCP rebel and former bureaucrat Sambhaji Zende is contesting against Shiv Sena leader Vijay Shivtare.

Rebel candidates within the MVA are also adding to the complexity. In Sangli, Jayashree Patil from the Vasant Dada Patil family is challenging Congress’s Pruthviraj Patil. In Sangola, Deepak Aba Salunkhe from Shiv Sena (UBT) is contesting against Dr Babasaheb Deshmukh from Peasants and Workers Party (PWP). In Pandharpur, Congress’s Bhairath Bhalke and NCP’s Anil Sawant are both contesting the polls, creating an opening for BJP’s Samadhan Awatade.

Mahesh Sane, a political analyst from Pune, said, “In this election, at least six major party options are available to any candidate who wishes to contest. As far as the election outcome is concerned, a rebel who can secure at least 10,000 votes may change the electoral result in that particular constituency.”

Whereas Maharashtra deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis said, “They (rebels) are our own people and it is our responsibility to engage with them and win their support. Discontent over ticket allocation is not uncommon.”

Recently, the BJP expelled 40 leaders and office-bearers across 37 assembly constituencies for defying party directives. In a statement issued by Maharashtra BJP office secretary Mukul Kulkarni, the party condemned the actions of the expelled members saying, “Despite holding office-bearer positions within the BJP, you have acted in violation of party discipline. Such behaviour is a clear breach of party rules and as a result, you are being expelled from the party with immediate effect.”

On the MVA side, the Maharashtra Congress on Monday suspended 22 rebel candidates from assembly elections for a period of six years citing their involvement in ‘anti-party’ activities, as per a party statement. Congress leader Ramesh Chennithala said that all party rebels contesting against the official MVA candidates would face a six-year suspension.

Pune leads with the highest number of rebel-infested seats (10), followed by Solapur (eight), Ahmednagar (seven), Kolhapur (six), Sangli (three), and Satara (two). Many of these rebels hold significant sway in their constituencies, capable of swinging votes away from the official candidates. For both alliances, the upcoming assembly elections have heightened challenges due to factionalism fuelled by the splits within the Shiv Sena and NCP. Western Maharashtra, known as the ‘sugar belt’ and traditionally dominated by Sharad Pawar’s NCP and Congress, remains pivotal. PM Modi’s recent campaigns in Pune and Solapur aimed to recapture the ground lost in the recent Lok Sabha polls where the Mahayuti won only four out of 10 seats.

In the 2019 Assembly polls, NCP led the region with 27 seats, followed by BJP with 20, Congress with 12, and five each for Shiv Sena and the independents. This year however, the impact of rebel candidates may drastically alter the balance in western Maharashtra.