Monday Musings: Polls ahead, who will benefit most from Jarange-Patil’s protest?

Six months ago, when the image of pro-quota activist Manoj Jarange Patil began to dominate television screens across Maharashtra, parallels were drawn between his protest and the movements led by figures like Anna Hazare. Both shared a fervent dedication to their causes, yet there was a crucial difference: Hazare’s strategic restraint contrasted sharply with Jarange’s unyielding approach.

While Hazare had demonstrated a knack for knowing when to halt protests to prevent them from backfiring, Jarange remained steadfast in his agitation. Each time the activist from Jalna escalated his demands against the government, Chief Minister Eknath Shinde attempted to placate him, even resorting to personal meetings—a departure from the State’s previous handling of dissent. However, this conciliatory stance stirred discontent among some within the government, who viewed Shinde’s approach as overly accommodating to Jarange Patil.

Jarange Patil’s latest assertiveness reached a new peak with sensational allegations on Sunday, claiming that Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis sought to eliminate him. The government, while denying the allegations, has now started talking firmly with a clear message to the protester: “stay in your limit”.

The quota activist’s escalation coincided with internal rifts among protestors, surfacing in the aftermath of the Maharashtra legislature’s approval of a bill granting 10% reservation to Marathas.

The success of any protest hinges on several key factors. Foremost is the movement’s ability to dominate the narrative and effectively convey its message. Equally vital is recognising adversaries and deploying resources strategically to counter them. Tactics for challenging a corporate entity differ markedly from those employed against a government, which possesses vast resources. Ultimately, for a movement to endure, it must garner support beyond its core base.

In Jarange Patil’s case, his shifting demands have been notable. What initially began as a call for Kunbi status exclusively for those from the Marathwada region with historical records expanded into broader demands for reservation for all within the OBC category, alongside legislation on ‘sage-soyare’—a provision allowing those without Kunbi certification but linked to the Maratha sub-caste to obtain such recognition.

Despite the government’s concessions on most demands, Jarange Patil’s protest appears increasingly untenable. This sentiment was palpable on Friday when quota activists urged community members to stage ‘rasta-roko’ protests, only to receive a lukewarm response.

Marathas, comprising roughly one-third of Maharashtra’s population, wield significant electoral influence, making them a crucial constituency for every political party in the state. Once stalwarts of the Congress and subsequently the NCP, Marathas have shifted allegiances in recent years, leaving no single political entity able to claim them as a core constituency.

As Maharashtra and the rest of the country gears up for Lok Sabha polls, the ramifications of the government’s move to offer a 10 per cent quota for Marathas and Jarange Patils’s protest is likely to have an impact. While it has galvanised a significant portion of the Maratha community, its divisive nature threatens to splinter support and reshape political dynamics in the state. As the dust settles, the question remains: who stands to gain the most from the aftermath of Jarange Patil’s impassioned crusade?

The clear answer will be delivered soon once the votes are counted from the Electronic Voting Machine. But many see it will most likely be a repeat of 2019 when the Maratha community staged over 50 massive rallies. And when the then Fadnavis government gave 16 per cent reservation in 2018, the party benefited from it in the elections a year later.

This time, Jarange Patil’s insistence on OBC reservation has already alienated a substantial segment of society. Simultaneously, by rebuffing this demand, the government—particularly the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)—has reinforced its support among its core OBC vote bank, which is crucial and numerically bigger than the Marathas.