Monday Musings: Fragmentation of politics and division of votes

Maharashtra’s political landscape has witnessed significant changes over the past five years since 2019, with the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and Shiv Sena splitting into two different entities each from their previous avatars. As the state heads into national elections, the political landscape has become more crowded with new players.

This fragmentation of politics doesn’t just divide votes but also impacts established vote banks. With six major parties including the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Congress, two NCPs, and two Shiv Senas, along with at least a dozen minor players – most being part of two major alliances - no political organisation in the state can claim complete monopoly over a particular vote bank.

Vote-bank politics refers to the strategic targeting of voters based on factors such as caste, language, religion, and sect. This approach has evolved into a prevalent phenomenon, with political parties leveraging it to cultivate loyal voter blocs aligned with their ideologies and interests. However, critics often highlight its drawbacks, noting that it can exacerbate societal divisions along identity and ideological lines.

Take for example Shiv Sena, once known for its Hindutva stance, experienced a shift when Eknath Shinde left, taking a portion of its support base and symbol with him. The Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray is now not averse to seeking votes from the Muslim community, which in parts may even back the party.

Similarly, the undivided NCP, previously backed by Muslims and Marathas, has now been split into two factions and both trying to eat into a pie of these two vote banks.

The Muslim vote bank, largely behind Congress till a decade-and-half ago, now has multiple options – starting with Congress, the NCP led by Sharad Pawar and another by Ajit Pawar, and Shiv Sena led by Thackeray. There are two other players mainly eating into the Muslim vote bank - All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), and Prakash Ambedkar-led Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA).

The same goes for Marathas, who were once solidly behind undivided NCP till the BJP inducted prominent leaders belonging to the community between 2014 to 2019, leading to a shift of votes. In 2019, Marathas were solidly behind BJP, which emerged as the largest party in the state during assembly polls. What further contributed to Marathas backing BJP then was reservation offered to the community by then Devendra Fadnavis government.

This time, the state once again witnessed large-scale protests from the community, mainly led by pro-quota activist Manoj Jarange-Patil. While the protestors had initially decided to field Maratha candidates in each constituency, the decision was later withdrawn, possibly due to the realisation that Marathas don’t vote for one party or candidate. As the state government led by Eknath Shinde has now offered 10 per cent reservation to the community, Marathas may well also consider voting for the Shinde-led Shiv Sena.

The situation is no different for OBC and Dalit vote banks. Once, the OBCs were solidly behind the BJP in state politics as the party experimented with a unique formula called MADHAV, an acronym representing the Mali, Dhangar, and Vanjaris, aiming to empower and include OBC leadership within these communities. As other parties also empowered OBC leadership such as Chhagan Bhujbal and Sunil Tatkare in NCP, Nana Patole, and Vijay Wadettiwar in Congress, these communities may vote differently in different constituencies.

In fact, smaller castes among OBC and Dalits voted in large numbers for VBA candidates in 2019. This time too VBA along with other parties can eye dalit votes

This diverse political scene, with the emergence of smaller parties and independent candidates, adds complexity to the upcoming polls, shaping the future direction of Maharashtra’s governance.