Higher turnout in Kasba, Kothrud and Parvati sparks debate of who among Mohol and Dhangekar has advantage

The rise in voter turnout in Pune constituency during Monday’s polling for the fourth phase of Lok Sabha election has triggered speculations who among the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) candidate Murlidhar Mohol and Congress’s Ravindra Dhangekar will benefit from it. The voter turnout for Monday’s polling stood at 50.32%, which is higher than 2019 polling of 49.89% and lower than 54.11% turnout of 2014, according to the figures released by the Election Commission of India.

Till 5pm, voter turnout stood at 50.32%, with an addition expected in the last one hour. These numbers may be updated further in a day or two by the poll body, as has been done in the past, even as there is unlikely to be a major change.

Political observers claimed that voters came out in large number to cast vote in different areas under Kasba Peth, Parvati and Kothrud assembly constituencies indicating that the fight on cards has become even close.

The Congress has been heavily relying on Kasba Peth as Dhangekar recorded a surprise win here during bypolls in February 2023 even as the assembly constituency was once considered BJP stronghold.

In Monday’s polling, Kasba Peth assembly recorded 57.90% voter turnout which is higher than 50.06% turnout recorded during last year’s bypolls when Dhangekar won by a margin of over 10,000 votes.

Kothrud and Parvati assembly constituencies, which are traditionally seen as BJP strongholds also recorded 49.10% and 49.10% turnout respectively at the end of polling. The BJP hopes to gain margin from these segments.

In suburbs like Wadgaonsheri, polling percentage was 49.71% while Shivajinagar, Cantonment reported 49.72% and 44.01% voter turnout. While Cantonment has previously elected Congress candidates, both parties claim advantage in Shivajinagar.

Hours after the polling process was over, both sides claimed they will win the election even as the counting of votes will be done on June 4.

Dhangekar said, “This time the common man will definitely make us victorious. It would be the citizens’ win.”

Mohol said, “We are quite confident about winning the seat. People believe in prime minister’s strong leadership and definitely voted to make Modi Prime Minister for the third time.”

While Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi’s (VBA) Vasant More was the third key candidate in the fray, voters reportedly largely chose between Mohol and Dhangekar, an indication that division of votes is unlikely to happen on large scale.

Considering previous elections data, this time the voting percentage steadily kept moving as cloudy atmosphere offered respite from the scorching heat. The maximum temperature at Shivajinagar was 36 degrees C while parts of Pune city received rainfall in the evening.

As per the election commission’s data, Pune Lok Sabha had registered voter turnout of 43.57% in 2004, 40.66 % in 2009, 54.11% in 2014, 49.89% in 2019.

In previous elections on most occasions, there were a third strong candidate in the fray which to some extent caused vote division. For example, in the 1999 Lok Sabha election, NCP candidate Vitthal Tupe garnered 1.98 lakh votes. In 2004, Arun Bhatia got 60,213 votes. In 2009, MNS candidate Ranjeet Shirole got 75,930 votes and BSP candidate DS Kulkarni 62,981 votes. In 2014, MNS candidate Deepak Paigude received 93,502 votes and AAP candidate Subhash Ware 28,657 votes. In 2019 election, VBA’s Anil Jadhav received 64,793 votes.