It’s BJP’s organisation skills vs RJD’s deft manoeuvrings in Bihar: Experts

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) may have successfully resolved its problems in Bihar by turning back to the tried-and-tested formula of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections – alliance with chief minister Nitish Kumar – but experts feel the impact on the ground will be visible only after the election results are announced on June 4 due to a better organised Opposition under the Tejashwi Yadav-led Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD).

“It is basically a direct fight between the BJP-led NDA and the RJD-led Grand Alliance (GA). Just as the BJP did not give weightage to smaller parties after the return of Nitish Kumar to NDA, the RJD also focused on ground realities by giving the Left a better deal, making the Congress compromise and ignoring the habitual party hoppers,” former director of AN Sinha Institute of Social Studies and political commentator DM Diwakar said.

The CPI-ML has fielded former JNU general secretary and Paliganj MLA Sandeep Saurav from Nalanda against three-time Janata Dal (United) MP Kaushlendra Kumar. Saurav is a known face in Bihar due to his protest over the teachers’ issues. Similarly, another CPI-ML MLA Sudama Prasad will take on Union minister RK Singh from Ara. In Karakat, the party’s former MLA Rajaram Singh will take on another former Union minister Upendra Kushwaha.

The BJP managed to remove any possibility of rebellion in the LJP by going with the Chirag Paswan faction and avoiding even a murmur from the Pashupati Kumar Paras group, which had five MPs in the NDA government at the Centre and only one was accommodated this year. Though Paras was in the Union Cabinet, Chirag ensured he had the last laugh.

Vikashsheel Ishaan Party (VIP) chief Mukesh Sahni, who emerged on the political scene in 2014 as part of the BJP alliance and later moved to GA, has also maintained silence despite being denied ticket. After the NDA, the GA also gave him the snub due to the RJD’s clear stand on how it would fight the elections.

The same happened with Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM), who had to remain content with just one seat.

Diwakar said that for smaller parties, the options narrowed down this time as the RJD too has played its cards well in a bid to make the fight as direct as possible, especially on seats where the BJP does not have a stronghold.

However, players like Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM, which plans to contest 15 Lok Sabha seats this time after winning five Assembly seats in 2020, has the potential to make a dent in Muslim-dominated areas, Diwakar said.

“The RJD was till now not too critical of Nitish Kumar, but after the January switchover, it has become increasingly attacking. The RJD has also fielded strong candidates against JD(U) and the going may not be easy on those seats. For the BJP, its inability to produce a credible and acceptable leadership in the state is a big handicap, as it has become too dependent on the charisma of Prime Minister Narendra Modi,” Diwakar added.

Social analyst professor Nawal Kishor Choudhary said that after Nitish Kumar’s return to the NDA, the BJP did not feel the need to look beyond him and stuck to the old formula.

“Nitish Kumar may not be in his prime anymore but he did make himself indispensable for the BJP in Bihar all these years and that is the reason why doors opened for him despite home minister Amit Shah’s repeated remarks earlier that the doors were closed for him. But the RJD under Lalu Prasad cannot be taken lightly,” he said.