Bihar to be first lab to assess political impact of Centre’s caste census

In 2024, the Lok Sabha election in Bihar was the first test for political parties hankering for credit after the state came out with its caste survey data, reservation hike and later the court’s rejection one after another.

A year later, Bihar would again be the first laboratory to assess the political impact of the Centre’s decision to get caste enumeration done along with the forthcoming Census amidst another credit war, as the state goes to Assembly elections later this year.

There has been a demand for caste-based census and Bihar was the first state to take an all -party delegation, including BJP, JD(U), RJD, Left, HAM, LKlJP and VIP, led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar to meet PM Narendra Modi in August 2021.

A year later, after the Centre did not show inclination and said states could do it, Bihar announced to carry out caste-based survey and the findings came out in October 2023 and subsequently reservation was hiked on its basis to 65%, besides 10% quota for EWS over and above.

However, in June 2024, the Patna High Court set aside the Bihar Reservation of Vacancies in Posts and Services (Amendment) Act, 2023 and The Bihar (In admission in Educational Institutions) Reservation (Amendment) Act, 2023 as ultra vires and violative of equality clause under Articles 14, 15 and 16.

Later, the Bihar government moved the SC challenging the HC order, but could not get stay on the order, meaning that the state would continue with the old reservation formula with a cap on 50%.

The matter was also raised in Bihar Legislative Assembly by the Oppsoition, which questioned why the Bihar government did not to get the two laws included in the 9th Schedule despite ‘double engine’ at both the Centre and the state, to prevent court scrutiny.

The Bihar caste survey – the first in independent India to successfully enumerate all castes – had found that EBC, which comprises 112 castes, and OBC — constituting 30 communities — together made for 63.13% of the state’s population. Scheduled Castes form 19.65% and Scheduled Tribes 1.68%. Upper castes were found to be 15.52% of the population.

Now, with the Centre announcing caste enumeration and credit war getting intensified over how it was made possible, experts feel that it would be interesting to see its impact in the Bihar elections later this year, as both the ruling dispensation and the Opposition would strive to corner its benefits.

Former director of AN Sinha Institute of Social Studies DM Diwakar said the buzz would understandably get louder in Bihar, as it was a fact that the caste survey formed the basis for a pan-India demand for caste enumeration with census, but it was also a fact that it happened during the NDA government.

“The Opposition RJD could not achieve the desired benefits in the Lok Sabha election despite attacking the BJP for its ambiguous stand, but now that it has become a reality it would be a different ball game in the state elections. The changed climate after the terror attack. Supreme Court’s tough posturing and the changing political climate in a state that has been a challenge for the BJP may have contributed in the decision for a new social engineering,” he added.

Diwakar, however, said Nitish Kumar, who was instrumental behind the caste survey, could be to NDA’s advantage and lend strength to the JD(U) at a time when it needed it, though RJD and the Congress would showcase it as a result of their relentless pressure on the BJP and promise more, as they have already started doing.

Former professor at the Tata Institute of Social Sciences (TISS) Pushpendra said the benefit of caste enumeration with census would not be much for the NDA in Bihar, as the caste survey had already been done here.

“Now, the Opposition would ask as to what socio-economic benefits could reach the needy after the survey? Caste enumeration has only been announced, not done. What has already been done will have bigger impact and the Opposition seems to be already positioning itself for it,” he added.

Social analyst NK Choudhary said BJP’s decision, which was understandably guided by circumstances and changing politics, would have far reaching consequences in the next decade, even though people might debate whether it was right or not from their own perspectives.

“BJP has done it to seize the initiative and it would certainly blunt, to smaller or larger extent, the narrative the Opposition was trying to build against it in Bihar, as well as outside the state. Politics has pushed BJP into deciding it with an eye on neutralising the Opposition attack. Caste survey did not give much benefit to the Opposition in Lok Sabha elections and I don’t see much will change in state polls despite intense rhetoric,” he added.