Sisamau by-election: Despite Solanki’s absence, BJP path remains thorny

By-election in the Sisamau assembly seat in Kanpur, is set to be an interesting one. A Samajwadi Party (SP) key stronghold, the party has enjoyed electoral success in this Muslim-Dalit-Brahmin-dominated constituency for the past six elections. However, following the conviction of incumbent SP MLA, Irfan Solanki, the BJP is eager to claim this vital seat.

Solanki, who recently received a seven-year prison sentence for arson, had previously secured his fourth term in 2022, defeating BJP heavyweight Salil Vishnoi. The Solanki family has maintained a grip on this constituency for six terms, with Irfan’s father, Haji Mushtaq, serving two terms before him till his death in 2006. Following the 2012 delimitation, which transformed Arya Nagar into Sisamau, the family legacy continued through Irfan until his recent legal troubles.

Despite a strong Modi wave in 2017, Irfan managed to defeat the BJP’s firebrand candidate, Suresh Awasthi. In the 2022 elections, amid intense political polarisation, he again triumphed over Vishnoi by a margin of 12,000 votes. The BJP, determined to win the seat, has been experimenting with various candidate profiles since 2012, fielding Brahmin and Vaishya candidates to appeal to a diverse voter base. However, internal conflict and dissatisfaction among party workers have hampered these efforts, culminating in Vishnoi’s unsuccessful campaign despite high-profile support.

Chief minister Yogi Adityanath’s recent visit to Sisamau included a review of preparations for the by-election, as he sought feedback from Mandal and Vidhan Sabha level leaders. This interaction reflects a serious attempt to address internal discord, a persistent issue for the BJP. Party workers have voiced concerns about the lack of development in BJP-held areas within the Kanpur Municipal Corporation, which could affect voter sentiment.

As the BJP strategises for the upcoming election, potential candidates are emerging. There are discussions about fielding a Dalit or OBC candidate, with Upendra Paswan and Rakesh Sonkar identified as frontrunners. However, the stakes are high, with Suresh Awasthi and Salil Vishnoi also asserting their claims.

Meanwhile, the SP is banking on sympathy for Solanki, charged as he is with 17 cases. With him in prison, wife Naseem Solanki has taken up the cudgels to fight the by-election. Meanwhile, Solanki’s mother, Khurshida Begum, has vowed to campaign for her daughter in law.

What SP and Naseem seem to be banking upon is the direct relationship that Solanki established with the Hindu voters of the constituency. Solanki had focussed on Hindu voters and in the process had got the Balkhandeshwar Temple in the area renovated with his own purse of ₹50 lakh before the 2022 election.

The city unit SP, with president Fazal Mahmood, has also accused the BJP of playing dirty, shunting Muslim BLOs from the constituency, in a bid to turn the voting tide in its favour.

“The challenge before the BJP is pacifying the discontented workers and ensuring acceptance of a Brahmin or a Vaishya candidate among them if it decides to field any of them,” stated a party leader.

With a total of 340,000 voters, the demographics in Sisamau are crucial: approximately 110,000 are Muslims, 80,000 Brahmins, 60,000 Dalits, 30,000 Vaishyas, and 15,000 Sikhs. The BJP aims to mitigate the trend of non-Muslim voters shifting towards the SP by focusing on Dalit outreach, with former DGP and Rajya Sabha member Braj Lal tasked with this initiative. Senior minister Suresh Khanna and other ministers have been actively organising community meetings to bolster support.

As both parties gear up for this critical contest, the Sisamau by-election is poised to be a defining moment in the city’s political landscape, reflecting the intricate dynamics of community loyalties and electoral strategies.