On Ansari’s turf, caste matrix dominates Hindu-Muslim template

It is a town in the far-east of Uttar Pradesh, but since December 2021 with the Purvanchal Expressway getting operational, Ghazipur is just a four-hour drive from the state capital Lucknow. Despite the travel time being reduced and this old city put on the swift pace of growth, the development narrative is not in play here. What matters here the most is the caste dynamics and the Ansari factor.

The latter got a new perspective following death of don-turned politician Mukhtar Ansari. For decades, Ansari family had wielded clout in the region and yet again, Mukhtar’s elder brother Afzal Ansari, who is also the sitting MP, is in the contest from here as the Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance candidate.

The BJP has fielded Parasnath Rai, an academician, who is known more as a Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh functionary rather than a street smart politician. Rai is said to be a trusted aide of Jammu and Kashmir lieutenant governor Manoj Sinha, who has been the BJP’s biggest face of political resistance to the Ansaris in the constituency.

Sinha has won the Ghazipur Lok Sabha polls twice -- first in 1999 and then in 2014. He, however, lost to Afzal in 2019, when the BSP and the SP had forged an alliance.

The Bahujan Samaj Party, too, is in the poll fray from here. It has fielded Umesh Singh the former BHU students’ union general secretary. However, the contest is being seen to be directly between the BJP and the SP.

On its part the BJP is banking primarily on the larger Hindu caste calculus and the larger law and order narrative and action against the big mafia that has been developed under the Yogi Adityanath government in the state. In its caste arithmetic, BJP is also relying heavily on its OBC Rajbhar-based ally Suheldev Bharitya Samaj Party(SBSP), whose chief Om Praskash Rajbhar is now a cabinet minister in the Yogi government.

The two constituencies of the region, Ghazipur and Ghosi have a strong presence of the Rajbhar caste-group. In Ghosi, Rajbhar’s son Arun is the NDA candidate on the SBSP ticket.

In the 2022 U.P assembly polls, the SBSP was in alliance with the Samajwadi party. This alliance had resulted in the BJP’s humiliating defeat in the region. The BJP had lost all the five assembly constituencies in the Ghazipur district. This time, the BJP naturally hopes that the Rajbhar factor will now work in its favour.

There are around 45,000 Rajbhars in the Jakhania assembly segment of Ghazipur Lok Sabha constituency and around 70,000 in the Zahoorabad assembly segment which falls under the Ballia Lok Sabha segment.

Contrasting the BJP’s poll strategy, Afzal Ansari is banking on the traditional Muslim -Yadav factor along with addition of other castes following the Samajwadi Party’s non Yadav OBC outreach plan, often termed as the PDA concept. It is defined as the Pichda, Dalit and Alpsankyak( Backward, dalit and minorities) formula.

For Afzal and his party, the MY factor has worked well in the past and it looks further cemented in the present general election. The alliance with Congress has further resulted in consolidation of the minority vote bank.

This Lok Sabha constituency has an estimated presence of around 15 percent Yadav -Muslim voters.

The Ansari camp is also relying on a sympathy quotient for Mukhtar. It believes that Mukhtar’s portrayal as a mafia don will not cut much ice with the poor voters cutting across religious and caste lines. Clearly victory or defeat here will also be seen as a statement on the Mukhtar saga.

With a few days left for polling on June 1, both sides are leaving no efforts in reaching out to the voters. Afzal Ansari’s daughter Nusrat Ansari, too, is aggressively campaigning for her father. This election is being seen as a debut for her. At the start of the campaign, she was seen seeking blessings at the Shiva temple in Ghazipur.

With Mukhtar being no more and his elder son Abbas still being behind the bars, its Mukhtar’s younger son Umar who has joined his uncle in the campaign.

For the BJP, the star campaigners led by PM Narendra Modi and U.P CM Yogi Adityanath have already descended on Ghazipur. A strong narrative is being made around action against mafia.

On May 25, addressing a poll rally in Ghazipur, Modi reminded people how the riots and the rioters have been dealt with an iron hand under Yogi’s rule.

Local heavyweight Manoj Sinha has also taken out time from his busy office schedule in Jammu and Kashmir to camp in Ghazipur for the BJP candidate.

As the campaign gets intense, one can clearly hear the poll buzz on the ground. The complex caste matrix and not the religion template of Hindu-Muslim seems playing out. At the famous tea stall of Manoj Pal in RavindraPuri locality, assembled youths tell this reporter that opinion is divided over Afzal Ansari and Paras Nath Rai. However, there is no dispute over development work carried out in Ghazipur by Manoj Sinha during his tenure as the Lok Sabha MP and union railway minister.

“It would have been a different election altogether if Manoj Sinha had contested. Who knows Paras Nath Rai?” says Rudra Prakash Yadav. He adds that the Hindu -Muslim discourse is not a factor here.

Sanjay Yadav agrees with him. He says: “Despite carrying out so much development in Ghazipur, Manoj Sinha lost due to caste factor.”

His friend Anup feels Afzal has an upper hand while sitting next to them, Animesh Tewari counters: “The BJP has its support base intact here and it has supporters across the communities “.

However, all of them are unanimous when it comes to opposing the Agnipath scheme of the Modi government to recruit candidates for the armed forces. Those selected are known as Agniveers.

Ghazipur is among the few places across the country from where maximum youths are selected for the Indian Army.

“Before the Agniveer was introduced, on any given day one could see not less than 1000 aspirants at the PG College ground preparing for the physical test for recruitment in the Army,” said Rudra Prakash Yadav.

“But today you could see only 40 to 50 candidates running or doing other physical activity at the ground,” says Animesh Tewari.

Another spot of hyper political activity in Ghazipur is the district court where advocates are more vocal in expressing their views.

“Ghazipur is no longer the same city that it used to be before 2017. After the Yogi Adityanth government came to power in the state, “mafia raj” has ended,” says advocate Ranjeet Singh.

His views are echoed by advocate JP Singh and Balendu Shekhar Singh. “Much has changed in Ghazipur,” he claims.

When asked about the Mukhtar Ansari factor in this election in Ghazipur, Ranjeet Singh says, “Mukhtar Ansari is no more a factor in Ghazipur.”

“He could be a factor for his community (Muslims) but not for others,” he adds.