Four seats in Azamgarh division:Caste calculus in triangular fight keeps everyone guessing

Caste loyalties, triangular fight and even a rematch have given the electoral battle an interesting flavour in four parliamentary constituencies in the Azamgarh division -- Azamgarh, Ballia, Ghosi and Lalganj (SC) -- where no party is expected to have cakewalk in the 2024 Lok Sabha election.

The BJP has won the Azamgarh and Ballia seats twice and Ghosi and Lalganj (SC) once each in the Lok Sabha elections. In the 2024 polls, the BJP is out to retain Azamgarh and Ballia, and wrest Lalganj (SC) and Ghosi. Lalganj and Azamgarh go to the polls in the sixth phase on May 25. Ballia and Ghosi vote in the seventh and final phase on June 1.

Yadav vs Yadav in Azamgarh

Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav has fielded his cousin Dharmendra Yadav from Azamgarh while the BJP has chosen sitting MP and Bhojpuri actor-singer Dinesh Lal Yadav Nirahua who wrested the seat from the SP in the June 2022 Lok Sabha by-election after Akhilesh Yadav resigned as MP on being elected as MLA from Karhal in Mainpuri. Nirahua defeated Dharmendra Yadav by over 8,000 votes.

The 2024 election is witnessing a rematch between Dharmendra Yadav and Nirahua. The Bahujan Samaj Party initially named Bhim Rajbhar for the Azamgarh seat, then fielded Sabeeha Ansari and later replaced her with Mashood Ahmed.

In the 2022 bypoll, the BSP had nominated Shah Alam aka Guddu Jamali, who got over 2.66 lakh votes, upsetting the SP’s applecart. Shah Alam is now in the Samajwadi Party and is said to have influence over Muslim voters in the constituency.

The MY (Muslim and Yadav) factor plays a dominant role in every election on this seat, says political analyst Ramjeet Chandan.

The story is the same this election, adds Chandan. The SP lost the seat to the BJP in 2022 due to a dent in the ‘MY’ combine, he says. But the SP has repaired the dent. As a result, the challenge for the BJP has increased, he adds.

The BJP, too, has its cadre vote and banks on the magic of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The BJP lost Azamgarh, Lalganj and Ghosi to the formidable Samajwadi Party-Bahujan Samaj Party alliance in 2019. The BSP and the SP have parted ways after a shortlived bonhomie, but the Samajwadi Party and the Congress have come together as INDIA bloc partners.

The Congress won the Azamgarh Lok Sabha seven times till 1984, except for the 1977 and 1980 general elections when the Janata Party and Janata Party (Secular) emerged victorious. The BSP won the seat four times in 1989, 1998, 2004 and 2008 (bypoll). The Samajwadi Party won the seat for the first time in 1996 and then again 1999, 2014 and 2019.

Irrespective of the political party, Yadav candidates won the Azamgarh seat 13 times. When the BJP won the seat in 2009 and 2022, the winners were Yadavs on both occasions.

The BJP has fielded Neeraj Shekhar, the son of former Prime Minister the late Chandrashekhar, from Ballia for a hat-trick of wins on the turf of socialists and revolutionaries like Mangal Pandey and Chittu Pandey.

It gave birth to the political career of many socialists, including Chandrashekhar and former Union minister Janeshwar Mishra. The Socialist Party had won the seat in the first Lok Sabha election in 1952. Chandrashekhar emerged victorious in Ballia for the first time in 1977 as Janata Party candidate. He won the seat eight times till 2004, but had to face defeat in the 1984 general election held after the assassination of the then prime minister Indira Gandhi.

The Congress won the seat five times between 1957 and 1984, except for 1977 and 1980 when the Janata Party stopped its victory chariot.

After Chandrashekhar’s death, his son Neeraj Shekhar won the Ballia Lok Sabha seat as the Samajwadi Party candidate in 2009.

The socialists’ turf sprang a surprise in 2014 when the lotus bloomed in Ballia for the first time with BJP candidate Bharat Singh winning the seat. In 2019, the BJP replaced Bharat Singh with Veerendra Singh Mast who also won. In 2024, the BJP has dropped the sitting MP and fielded Neeraj Shekhar.

The Samajwadi Party has fielded Sanatan Pandey, who was the runner-up in 2019.

Political analyst Arun Mishra says Ballia nurtured the socialist ideology in the past but the BJP succeeded in winning the seat in 2014 by fielding a candidate, who fit the local political equations.

“In this election, the BJP has dropped the sitting MP to counter anti-incumbency and fielded Neeraj Shekhar. The saffron party faces a challenge from the Samajwadi Party,” he says.

The Rai and Rajbhar factors dominate the political equations in Ghosi.

In the Lok Sabha elections held between 1957 and 2019, Ghosi elected a Rai candidate 10 times, Rajbhars and Chauhans twice and Thakurs (Kshatriyas) thrice. Once again, a Rajbhar is pitted against a Rai – the BJP ally Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party general secretary Arvind Rajbhar versus the Samajwadi Party’s Rajeev Kumar Rai. The BSP’s Atul Rai won the seat in 2019, wresting it from the then sitting MP Harinarayan Rajbhar of the BJP.

The Congress won the seat in 1957. Thereafter, the Communist Party of India won it five times in 1962, 1967, 168, 1971 and 1980. The Janata Party won the seat in 1977 and the Congress in 1984, 1989, and 1991. The Samata Party won the seat in 1998, the BSP in 1999 and 2009, and the SP in 2009.

Riding the Modi wave, the BJP won the seat for the first time in 2014 when it fielded Harinarayan Rajbhar. But the BSP wrested the seat in 2019.

Independent political analyst Arun Mishra observes, “With Rai and Rajbhar face to face, the election has become interesting.”

The lotus bloomed just once at Lalganj (SC) Lok Sabha constituency in 2014 during the Modi wave when Neelam Sonkar was elected BJP MP. She, however, lost the seat to the BSP’s Sangeeta Azad in 2019. This time, the BSP has fielded Indu Chaudhary, an assistant professor at the department of English, Banaras Hindu University. The BJP has fielded Neelam Sonkar and the SP Daroga Saroj. Sangeeta Azad is now in the BJP.

The Praja Socialist Party won the seat in 1962, the Congress in 1967, 1971 and 1984, the Janata Party in 1977 and 1980, the Janata Dal in 1989 and 1991, the BSP in 1996, 1999, 2009 and 2019, the SP in 1998 and 2004.

The BJP could win the seat just once in 2014. Ashish Tiwari, a local, says the BSP has a strong support base. BSP candidate Chaudhary has been visiting the constituency.

SP candidate Daroga Saroj was elected MP twice. BJP candidate Neelam Sonkar, local, represented the seat in 2014. Tiwari says the battle is triangular.