Despite caste fault lines, some unfulfilled expectations, BJP-RLD hopeful of nailing bullseye

The BJP-RLD alliance looks to cut through a web of unfulfilled expectations, overcome caste fault lines and smoothen ruffled feathers among the upper caste Thakurs to romp home in Muzaffarnagar Lok Sabha constituency, the nerve centre of OBC Jat politics, in western Uttar Pradesh.

This time, the formidable BJP poll machine has been bolstered by an alliance with the RLD that helps it consolidate Jat votes in the constituency where two-time sitting MP and Union minister Sanjeev Balyan is seeking a hat-trick of wins in Muzaffarnagar, which goes to polls in the first phase on April 19.

The Muzaffarnagar constituency has over 18 lakh voters, including five lakh Muslims, 2.5 lakh Dalits, 5.5 lakh OBCs (Saini, Pal, Kashyap, Prajapati), 1.5 lakh Jats, 1 lakh Vaish, 1 lakh Thakurs and 1 lakh Brahmins-Tyagis.

A section of the Jat community at Chabaria village in Sardhana assembly segment feels that Rashtriya Lok Dal chief Jayant Chaudhary has committed a mistake by joining the BJP-led NDA alliance, but they still say they will vote for the NDA because they cannot let the young Jat scion lose, notwithstanding some unfulfilled expectations, farmers’ issues, particularly the shortage of agricultural labour.

“I strongly believe that RLD’s alliance with the BJP was not politically correct but now we need to protect the honour of the most revered family, which has the legacy of Chaudhary Charan Singh,” said former pradhan Jagdish Singh.

While the Jat factor undoubtedly gives the BJP-RLD alliance an advantage, it has caused some annoyance among the upper caste Thakurs who account for one lakh voters.

Thakurs, a traditional vote base of the BJP in west UP, are upset that barring Sarvesh Kumar Singh in Moradabad, the party has not given adequate representation to this caste group in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in west UP.

Thakurs strongly supported the BJP in the previous elections even as there was a saffron shift post the Muzaffarnagar riots of 2013.

“Both Jats and Thakurs are almost equal in number in Muzaffarnagar constituency,” said a resident of Muzaffarnagar.

But there is a counter view too.

A middle age farmer Sompal at Salawa village said, “A handful of leaders were creating chaos because they have been ignored in the election. The Thakurs are happy with the leadership of Yogi Adityanath”.

In 2019, Sanjeev Baliyan defeated the then RLD chief Chaudhary Ajit Singh, Jayant Chaudhary’s father, by a narrow margin of 6,526 votes.

This was Balyan’s second victory here.

The first win was a resounding one when he had defeated Kadir Rana of the Bahujan Samaj Party by a whopping four lakh votes in 2014. Chaudhary Virendra Singh of the Samajwadi Party was in third place.

In 2009, Rana had won the seat, defeating Anuradha Chaudhary of the RLD by over 21,000 votes. Sangeet Som, who was then with the Samajwadi Party, finished in third position.

This time, Sanjeev Balyan is pitted against Harendra Malik of the Samajwadi Party and Dara Singh Prajapati of the Bahujan Samaj Party,

Meanwhile, the Thakurs held a Panchayat at Kapsad village a few days and two more are proposed at Nanauta in Saharanpur on April 6 and at Khera village in Meerut on April 16, three days before the first phase of polling on April 19.

“The panchayat will take the final decision and we follow it,” said Sanjay Som at Madkarimpur.

MUZAFFARNAGAR LOK SABHA CONSTITUENCY

FIVE ASSEMBLY SEGMENTS

Budhana, Charthawal, Muzaffarnagar, Khatauli and Sardhana.

2024 CANDIDATES

Sanjeev Balyan BJP

Harendra Malik SP

Dara Singh Prajapati BSP

2019

Sanjeev Balyan BJP 573,780 49.34

Ajit Singh RLD 5,67,254 49.01

2014

Sanjeev Balyan BJP 6,53,391 58.98

Kadir Rana BSP 2,52,241 22.77

Virender Singh SP 1,60,810 14.52

2009

Kadir Rana BSP 2,75,318 36.96

Anuradha Chaudhary RLD 2,54,720 34.19 Sangeet Singh Som SP 1,06,667 14.32

Population 4,143,512 ( as per 2011 census)

Males 2,193,434

Females 1,950,078

Total voters

18,16, 284

9,68,265 Male

8,47,875 Female

144 Third gender

CASTE CONFIGURATION

Muslim 5 lakh

Dalit 2.5 lakh

OBC ( Saini, Pal, Kashyap, Prajapati etc) 5.5 lakh

Jat 1.5 lakh

Vaish 1 lakh

Thakur 1 lakh

Brahmin- Tyagi 1 lakh