Shettar’s move may hit BJP’s Lingayat votes, cadre morale: Experts

Bengaluru: Hours after former Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) veteran Jagadish Shetter joined the Congress, Karnataka chief minister Basavaraj Bommai downplayed the move saying it would have “little impact” on the party. But the party’s treatment to the leader may create disagreement within the cadre and impact the party’s poll prospects to some extent, analysts say.

Since Shettar is a Lingayat leader from Bombay-Karnataka region, where the community has a large presence, the BJP sidelining two Lingayat leaders could affect the BJP’s chances.

Within the party, Shettar’s exit is being compared to the unceremonious removal of the then Lingayat chief minister Veerendra Patil, which aided the migration of the community’s votes from the Congress, eventually to the BJP.

Following the communal riots in 1990, then Congress party president Rajiv Gandhi removed Patil, who was unwell at the time. The fact that Rajiv Gandhi removed him from power without consulting him on the tarmac of the Bengaluru airport, led to widespread anger within the community. This led to the Lingayats abandoning the Congress which had won 178 out of 224 MLA seats in 1989 with the support of the community.

The Congress leaders too harped on the “insult” to Shettar, to appeal to the emotions of the Lingayat community. Leader of the Opposition Siddaramaiah said Yediyurappa was the top leader and second to him is Shettar. “Yediyurappa was insulted by the BJP. He was thrown out of CM’s post. He (Yediyurappa) wept at the time of his resignation,” said Siddaramaiah.

After Yediyurappa, Shettar is the Lingayat leader who has faced a similar fate, he added. “Jagadish Shettar is not confined to north Karnataka region. He is a statewide leader. Denial of the ticket to a person like him, who does not have any allegations against him, is a big crime by BJP,” he said.

Prior to resigning from the party, Shettar claimed that his exit will affect the BJP’s prospects in 25 seats in the Mumbai-Karnataka region.

Political analyst Sandeep Shastri said there is no doubt that Shettar joining Congress is a jolt to the BJP. “For any party losing its oldest member who was dedicated to the party and its parent organisation is a problem. That too when Shettar was a soft-spoken person, who always abided by the party’s line. It takes a lot of conviction for him to take such a step and it would definitely impact the morale of the cadre,” he said.

Talking about the impact on the Lingayat vote bank, he said the BJP took a gamble with the decision when they know that retaining the Lingayat votes in Bombay-Karnataka is crucial for the party returning to power. “Lingayats voted for the BJP knowing that a Lingayat would become the chief minister. Now, Yediyurappa is no longer a chief minister face. The current chief minister is a Lingayat but the party is not projecting him as the CM candidate. In such a situation, and especially when the party is facing a serious anti-incumbency, losing two important Lingayat leaders like Laxman Savadi and Shetter will have an impact, but the question is how much,” he added.

For the Congress, which lacks big leaders from the Lingayat community in its ranks, the induction of Savadi and Shetter will be an important step to regain the Lingayat vote bank, especially when Yediyurappa has retired from electoral politics.

The BJP cited multiple reasons for denial of ticket to Shettar. A senior leader said Shettar was denied a ticket because his brother Pradeep was made an MLC in 2021. State BJP chief Nalin Kumar Kateel tried to retain him in the party by offering other posts, but he didn’t agree.

Chief minister Bommai said to ease Shettar out of electoral politics was part of the strategy devised by PM Modi to infuse fresh blood into the state unit. “Prime Minister Narendra Modi is trying to bring changes in politics. Our national president and the Union home minister had promised a big post in Delhi for Shettar,” he said.

“On Saturday, we informed him that the ticket will be given to anybody suggested by him but he did not agree. Shettar’s resignation from the party will impact the BJP but damage control exercises will be conducted to minimise the impact,” said Bommai.