Maharashtra polls: Which Shiv Sena will emerge on top in these elections?

MUMBAI: The Maharashtra assembly election will validate (or not) the ideological shift of Uddhav Thackeray, who quit the NDA and teamed up with the Congress and the Sharad Pawar-led NCP after the 2019 polls. It will also put to the test the acceptability or otherwise of Eknath Shinde’s 2022 mutiny, which altered the state’s political landscape. Put simply, it’s Shiv Sena versus Shiv Sena, a fight to the finish.

Awaaz kunaacha (Who is the boss?) is the key question.

Buoyed by the Ladki Bahin Yojana, Shinde seems gung-ho about the poll outcome. “Under Shindesaheb’s leadership the Mahayuti will bag around 155 to 160 seats (of the total 288), while the Maha Vikas Aghadi will garner around 120 to 125,” said a close Shinde aide. The turnout of women voters, many of them Muslim, was impressive at Shinde’s poll rally held in Kalwa, a bustling Thane suburb, recently. They cheered him on when he spoke about the Yojana.

On the other hand, Uddhav Thackeray has pulled out all stops to gear up the Shiv Sena (UBT)’s poll machinery and streamline the shakha network, which many say is in robust shape even after the 2022 split and defection of several senior party leaders to the Shinde Sena. However, with many of his close colleagues keeping away from the heat and tumble of politics either because of advanced age (Subhash Desai, Divakar Raote) or defection (Gajanan Kirtikar and Rahul Shewale), Uddhav lacks a good team to monitor the campaign nitty-gritty, said observers.

In these elections, straight contests will enable the two Senas to test each other’s TRPs and tenacity. The Sena and Sena (UBT) will be locked in a head-on fight in nearly 53 seats, including 11 of the 36 Mumbai seats. Most seats boast a high concentration of Marathi voters: Mahim, Byculla, Bhandup, Dindoshi, Magathane, Worli and Kurla to name a few. Word has it that the winning margins may be ridiculously low in many constituencies.

The Big Fight, of course, will unfold in the MMR region, which apart from Mumbai, includes Thane, Kalyan-Dombivli-Ambarnath, Navi Mumbai, Virar-Vasai, Bhiwandi, Badlapur, and the large arc that links Palghar and the sea-swept Raigad belt. In the Thane-MMR region, the two Senas will fight it out in nine of the 24 assembly seats—minus, of course, the Mumbai tally of 36.

That politicians, regardless of party labels, covet the MMR region because of its rampant urbanisation, soaring land prices and infra projects is a given. However, for both Senas, the MMR belt—especially Thane—is a prized trophy. Bal Thackeray’s undivided Shiv Sena made its mark in state politics by winning the Thane municipal corporation back in the 1970s in the face of stiff opposition from the then-powerful Congress. Shinde too has a soft spot for Thane. Decades ago, his family migrated from Satara to the fast-expanding industrial hub, and it was here that Shinde joined the Shiv Sena at age 18 and won his political spurs.

The Shiv Sena hoardings, which have mushroomed all over the state, show Bal Thackeray sharing space with Shinde’s guru Anand Dighe, a shrewd strategist known for his organisational skills and a certain charisma. They are an indication that Shinde could be planning to wrest Thackeray’s legacy from Matoshree, blend it with the Dighe mythology, and shift the politics of nativism to the MMR region, which boasts a good chunk of Marathis and BCs-OBCs.

Shinde’s main goal is to hike his party’s tally of seats. “Armed with a good share of assembly seats, he can extract a larger share in power from the BJP, even a second term as chief minister,” said political commentator Pravin Bardapurkar. “As Uddhav lost Konkan to the Mahayuti in the May Lok Sabha elections, he needs to firm up his tally in Mumbai and the Thane district ahead of the statewide civic corporation elections.” Meanwhile, the Shinde Sena too is looking for an opportunity in the coastal belt.

Many in the Sena (UBT) think that Uddhav may tap the discontent among Marathi-speaking Mumbaikars over the builder lobby’s growing clout in Mumbai, most of whom are Gujaratis, Marwaris and Jains and enjoy a good relationship with the BJP. Uddhav has been talking in his poll conclaves about the builder lobby’s siege of Mumbai. Shinde, a BJP ally, may find it tough to counter the charge, said analysts.

Meanwhile, stories of Shinde’s ability to raise resources keep doing the rounds in the corridors of power. He is said to be impatient with civil servants who talk of the additional burden which his sops will bring on the state exchequer. “But whether you like it or not, our democracy is steeped in the medieval culture of patronage,” said theatreperson Vishwas Sohoni. “People like to function within the age-old ‘jajmani’ (loyalty-reward) framework. All politicians know this but Shinde acts on it.”

Shinde has skilfully used his tactics to nurture his public image: a dispenser of instant justice (recall photographs showing him wading through an overflowing nullah in Santacruz) and distributor of freebies, a kind of cross between Robin Hood and Santa Claus. To loyal Shiv Sainiks, this is reminiscent of the halcyon Bal Thackeray era. “Shindesaheb has projected himself as a service-provider—a man of action who has no patience for protocol and red-tapism,” said a Shinde loyalist from Thane.

A former civil servant said that by getting re-nominations for the 40 MLAs of the undivided Shiv Sena, who joined him in his 2022 rebellion, Shinde showed that he was different from previous Sena rebels such as Chhagan Bhujbal, Narayan Rane and Raj Thackeray. “The past rebellions in the Shiv Sena were storms in a teacup,” he said. “However, Shinde’s was the Boston Tea Party for Uddhav. Shinde’s chief worry now is to ensure that the rebel MLAs get re-elected to the state assembly.

On the flip side, Shinde’s party lacks a statewide footfall. Also, his fast and furious style of functioning often leads to confusion among civil servants and party workers. “Shinde’s magic is confined mostly to the MMR region and some scattered parts,” said noted political chronicler Prakash Pawar, a Shivaji University professor in Kolhapur. “He lacks a well-knit organisational structure that can reach out to a cross-section of voters and cut a swathe across castes, communities and linguistic groups. He’s a one-man show.”

Many think that with politics getting increasingly enmeshed in local issues, the assembly poll has, by sheer force of circumstances, assumed a sub-regional character. For instance, major BJP-Congress fights will, broadly speaking, be seen in Vidarbha; the two NCPs and the Congress will slug it out in western Maharashtra and Marathwada, and the two Senas, in the MMR region. “But the poll centre-stage will be occupied by the Senas; other small and big allies will deliver their lines and be done with it,” said a retired Mantralaya official.

According to senior Sena (UBT) strategist Anil Parab, Thackeray’s 33-month-long stint as CM, during the Covid days, has generated enough goodwill for the party. “There is a positive response to the Sena (UBT) from voters,” he said. “They want to get rid of the ad hocism and recklessness of the Mahayuti government. The party rank and file is still with Uddhavsaheb, and the shakha network is perfectly in place.”

However, a sizeable section of Uddhav’s supporters is apprehensive if the party has actually gained as an MVA partner in terms of votes, share of seats and strike rate. “The Sena (UBT) contested 21 Lok Sabha seats, and won nine, with a strike rate of 42.86%,” said a Sena (UBT) veteran. “The Shinde Sena contested 15 Lok Sabha seats and won seven, registering a strike rate of 47%. Back in 2019, the undivided Shiv Sena contested 126 state assembly seats as BJP ally and won 56, with a 44% strike rate, while this time around the MVA has given us 94 assembly seats.”

From 171 assembly seats in the 1990s (as against the BJP’s tally of 117), the Uddhav Sena has come down to 94 in 2024. “Little wonder then that diehard Shiv Sainiks, who remember the heat and tumult of Advani’s ‘rath yatra’ and Bal Thackeray’s support to it, think that Shinde quit the Shiv Sena, as he realised that Uddhav Thackeray’s political moves would take the party nowhere,” said Bardapurkar.

Thackeray may have pinned his hopes on the Muslim, neo-Buddhist and Dalit voters in Mumbai who helped him win three of the six Lok Sabha seats in the city in May this year. “But we have lost 25% of our traditional Marathi votes because of our alliance with the Congress and the Sharad Pawar-led NCP,” said a Sena (UBT) corporator.

According to Prakash Pawar, Uddhav is set to steal a march over Shinde in the long run. “Uddhav may lack Shinde’s spunk and style,” he said. “But he has been talking about key issues: the role of regional parties in national politics, federalism and the highhandedness of pan-Indian political parties. The Lok Sabha elections results have shown that a large section of Dalit-Muslim-neo Buddhist voters has a soft spot for him.”

Pointing out that Shinde had not taken a single decision in the last two years which one could say has steeled the spine of the Marathi manoos, Pawar said the CM had been carrying out the orders of his New Delhi bosses dutifully. “The state assembly election is between Uddhav Thackeray and Amit Shah,” he said. “Hereafter, New Delhi bosses will orchestrate Maharashtra’s politics. Sharad Pawar and Uddhav have understood the gravity of the situation. So have Nitin Gadkari and Devendra Fadnavis, but their hands are tied, as they belong to the BJP.”

The post-poll scenario is hazy. According to BJP sources, the party high command is not likely to re-nominate Shinde as CM. Will Shinde revolt in that case? His famous line, “Mala halkyaat ghevoo naka (Don’t take me lightly)” is aimed more at the BJP than Matoshree, it is said. These were the exact words of Uddhav when he quit the BJP-led alliance in 2019.

The BJP has just set the cat among the pigeons in the Shinde camp by roping in MNS chief Raj Thackeray in the poll fray. A furious Shinde retaliated by asking Sada Sarvankar, the Shiv Sena candidate in the Mahim assembly constituency, not to withdraw, as the BJP had suggested, opposite Raj’s son Amit Thackeray who will debut from Mahim.

Also, what will Thackeray do if the Congress, armed with an impressive poll tally in Maharashtra, begins to purr with pride and behave condescendingly with Matoshree in the run-up to the crucial civic elections? Will Thackeray fight back?

Put simply, Shinde and Thackeray share not only a hoary past but a hazy future as well. In a bid to decimate each other politically, the two are banking on pan-Indian parties, a paradox of coalition politics across the country.

The final word comes from a Marathi poet who spoke on condition of anonymity. Commenting on the Orwellian crisis in the two Senas, she said, “Two Marathi regional leaders are fighting in the ring, their noses bleeding and faces bruised, and Delhi rulers are watching the bout with glee, wolfing down dhoklas and gaathias.”

Meanwhile, trust the Shiv Sena, in whichever avatar, to keep the pot boiling.