What does Assembly Speaker’s verdict on Shiv Sena mean for Maharashtra politics

Maharashtra Assembly Speaker Rahul Narwekar on Wednesday ruled that chief minister Eknath Shinde-led faction is the real Shiv Sena. He rejected the demand for disqualification of Shinde and his MLAs saying that there was no question of them violating provisions of anti-defection law since Thackeray faction’s chief whip Sunil Prabhu had no authority to issue the whip.

So, what does the verdict mean?

First, chief minister Eknath Shinde continues as the chief minister of Maharashtra. He gets boost in his political battle with Uddhav Thackeray as his claim on Shiv Sena now gets a stamp of approval by the Assembly Speaker. His fate now depends on what the Supreme Court decides on the disqualification issue as the Thackeray faction will challenge Narwekar’s verdict in the apex court.

Shinde will lead the ruling alliance in the Lok Sabha elections if the apex court’s verdict is not delivered by then or goes in his favour. If he wins the legal battle in the Supreme Court, he is likely to lead the alliance in state assembly elections, too, later this year. He will also have a good chance to return as chief minister if the alliance wins the assembly polls. Losing the court battle would mean he would have to step down as chief minister and face a jubilant Uddhav Thackeray-led rival faction in the assembly elections. The Supreme Court is also hearing a petition filed by the Thackeray faction challenging the Election Commission of India’s decision to give the Shiv Sena party and symbol to Shinde. This petition’s outcome would also affect the electoral battle between him and Thackeray.

For the Thackeray faction, Narwekar’s verdict hasn’t come as a surprise. Thackeray is relying on the Supreme Court order on the disqualification issue. If he wins the legal battle in the apex court, it will give him a major boost in rebuilding the party. Anticipating a possibility that the apex court order may come after Lok Sabha elections, the leaders of the Thackeray faction will use Narwekar’s verdict to generate sympathy for the beleaguered leader. They may try to build a narrative that Shinde has “stolen Balasaheb’s party at the behest of the BJP.”

Thackeray may have to contest the Lok Sabha elections without a party name and symbol if the SC verdict on EC’s decision does not come before the nomination procedure for parliamentary elections is over.

For both Shinde as well as Thackeray, Wednesday’s verdict is just another round in their long legal battle following the split in the party engineered by Shinde in June 2022. Both the rival factions will continue their bitter legal and political battle in the entire year.

For deputy chief minister and senior BJP leader Devendra Fadnavis, the verdict would be a logical end of a battle in which he was a major player. The verdict would be used by him and his party to claim legitimacy of the move to split the Shiv Sena. However, it also means Shinde stays at the helm in state and he cannot return as chief minister till the former’s fate is decided by the Supreme Court.

Narwekar’s verdict may set the tone for the electoral battle in the days to come. The opposition Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) is likely to turn the verdict to its favour in the coming elections. Recent surveys have shown that the MVA is still a force to be reckoned with in Maharashtra. The three parties are finalising their seat-sharing pact for 48 Lok Sabha seats in Maharashtra which are crucial for both the ruling BJP as well as the INDIA bloc.