Maharashtra polls: Tactical rebels likely to split opposition votes

Mumbai: With at least 18 rebel candidates in the fray for the upcoming assembly polls, both the ruling Mahayuti alliance and the opposition Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) appear to be compromising their own chances of securing the maximum number of seats. But some of the rebels have been tactically fielded by their respective parties, either to divide opposition votes and ensure their defeat or to score brownie points over their own allies.

The presence of rebel candidates in Akola West, Nanded North, Sangola and Maval is likely to benefit the MVA.

In Akola West, MVA’s official candidate is Sajid Khan Mannan Khan Pathan from the Congress while Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Rajesh Mishra has filed his nomination as an independent candidate. In 2019, when BJP was in alliance with the undivided Shiv Sena, Pathan lost to BJP’s Govardhan Sharma by just 2,593 votes. This time though, he is expected to benefit from the presence of Mishra in the fray, as the latter is likely to get some Hindu votes, which would otherwise go to BJP.

In Nanded North, although the MVA’s official candidate is Abdul Sattar Abdul Gafur from the Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Sangeeta Patil-Dak is also in the fray as her application for withdrawal of her nomination was rejected due to delay. They will be contesting against the sitting MLA Balajai Kalyankar, who sided with the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena during the split in the party last year.

Had there been a straight fight between the Congress candidate and Kalyankar, the latter would attract all the Hindu votes. But with Patil-Dak in the fray, Hindu votes are likely to be divided, benefitting Sattar.

In Sangola, where sitting MLA Shahaji Patil has been renominated by Shiv Sena, the MVA’s official candidate is Deepak Salunkhe from Shiv Sena (UBT). Babasaheb Deshmukh, a leader of the Peasants and Workers Party (PWP) which is part of the MVA, is also in the fray. While PWP had lost the seat to Patil in 2019 by just 786 votes, the triangular contest this time is likely to benefit Deshmukh. This is because while Deshmukh is a Dhangar, both Salunkhe and Patil are Marathas, and the Maratha vote is likely be divided between them.

“We do not have much problem with Shiv Sena (UBT) fielding Deepak Salunkhe because there was a possibility of polarisation of Maratha votes in favour of Patil had there been a direct contest between him and Deshmukh,” said a PWP office bearer.

In Maval, while the MVA does not have an official candidate, Sharad Pawar backed independent candidate Bapu Bhegade is in the fray against the NCP sitting MLA, Sunil Shelke. Two other NCP MLAs, Baban Shinde from Madha and Sanjay Shinde from Karmala, have also filed their nominations as independents. The arrangement is likely to benefit Bhegade, who enjoys support across the political spectrum.

“All parties want to defeat the sitting MLA. Since Bhegade is supported by even the ruling alliance at the local level, he was asked to file nomination as an independent so he can get support from all parties barring the BJP,” said a local NCP (SP) leader. NCP MLAs Baban Shinde and Sanjay Shinde have entered the fray as independents after realising that the tide is against party in Solapur and other parts of western Maharashtra, the NCP (SP) leader added.

In Shrigonda, Morshi and Mukhed, the presence of rebel candidates from within the Mahayuti alliance is expected to benefit one of the three main parties in the alliance.

In Shrigonda under Ahemdanagar district, Babanrao Pachpute, former minister and the sitting BJP MLA has fielded his son Vikram as an independent candidate. His wife Pratibha Pachpute had filed nomination as the BJP candidate, but she withdrew from the fray subsequently to pave way for son.

“Pachpute has realised that the political atmosphere in the district is against the BJP and fielding Vikram as an independent may improve his prospects,” said a local BJP leader.

In Morshi under Amravati district, both the BJP and the NCP, which have a strong base in the area, have fielded their own candidates. While sitting MLA Devendra Bhuyar has been renominated by NCP, BJP has fielded Umsh Yavalkar.

“The fight between the two allies will be neck and neck, but it is part of a strategy to ensure that opposition parties are not able to make any inroads,” said a BJP leader.

In Mukhed under Nanded district, while the BJP has renominated its sitting MLA Tushar Rathod, Shiv Sena leader Balaji Khatgaonkar, who was Eknath Shinde’s personal secretary, is also in the fray as an independent.

Rathod’s chances of reelection are bleak owing to the anger among Marathas against the three ruling parties over the issue of reservation. This is why the Shiv Sena has tacitly backed Khatgaonkar, a Maratha, said local leaders.