Sena vs Sena: Thackeray ahead of Shinde, does well in Mumbai, but battle continues

MUMBAI: The heated battleground of the Lok Sabha elections was meant to prove which of the two Sena factions was the “real Shiv Sena” after the bitter split in the party in June 2022. On Wednesday, Uddhav Thackeray scored by winning more seats (9), including three in Mumbai, than his rival Eknath Shinde (7). However, the fight between the two factions is far from over. Shinde has managed to hold on to some ground, and the combat will continue in the assembly elections to be held in September-October.

Thackeray’s party contested 21 seats as part of the opposition coalition Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) and won nine. These included three seats in Mumbai apart from the Nashik, Hingoli, Yavatmal-Washim, Hingoli, Parbhani and Osmanabad constituencies. Thackeray’s biggest triumph was in Mumbai, where he won three of the four seats he contested, proving that he still had control over this traditional Shiv Sena bastion. A combination of factors led to this victory, including the sympathy vote of the traditional Shiv Sena voter and a chunk of voters of his allies, the Congress and NCP (SP), especially the Dalit and minority voters.

Shinde, on his part, fielded candidates in 15 seats but could win only seven. His son Shrikant retained his Kalyan seat while his close confidant Naresh Mhaske won the Thane seat. The other seats won by the Shinde-led Sena are Chhatrapati Sambhaji Nagar, Maval, Buldhana and Hatkanangale.

In 2019, the undivided Shiv Sena had won 18 seats in alliance with the BJP. Following the split in the party, 13 MPs defected with Shinde while five stayed with Thackeray.

Of the 13 constituencies with sitting MPs, Shinde gave Palghar to the BJP and got Chhatrapati Sambhaji Nagar in exchange. Of his 12 seats with sitting MPs, Shinde lost eight and retained four (Kalyan, Maval, Buldhana and Hatkangale) and in addition won two seats—Thane and Chhatrapati Sambhaji Nagar. His MPs are now reduced to seven, a loss of over 50%.

Thackeray, who had five MPs with him before the elections, has won nine seats in the Lok Sabha elections. Three of his sitting MPs—Arvind Sawant, Omraje Nimbalkar and Sanjay Jadhav—were re-elected. Two sitting MPs—Rajan Vichare from Thane and Vinayak Raut from Ratnagiri-Sindhudurg—lost. Thackeray regained his position by winning more seats in Marathwada, as three of his four candidates won.

The results have given Thackeray a much-needed shot in the arm, enabling him to now claim that his stand was endorsed by the people. “Considering the odds that were stacked against him, Thackeray has done well,” said political analyst Padmabhushan Deshpande. “He had lost most of his MLAs and his party name and symbol but has managed to bounce back. He managed to get the benefit of the sympathy vote and the Marathi-versus-Gujarati narrative in Mumbai. Significantly, it appears that not just the minorities and Dalits, even North Indians voted against the BJP. That reflected in Thackeray’s numbers.”

Thackeray’s winning more seats than Shinde has strengthened his position ahead of the assembly elections slated for September-October as well as the Mumbai civic polls. Mumbai has 36 assembly seats. There is a possibility of some of his MLAs returning to him, as the party put up a strong show in Mumbai and Marathwada.

Although CM Shinde won less seats than his former tally, he succeeded in retaining his home turf, Thane. His party won the Thane and Kalyan constituencies and played a crucial role in the victory of the ruling alliance’s candidates in Konkan like Palghar, Raigad and Ratnagiri-Sindhudurg. The Shiv Sena’s winning seats in Mumbai metropolitan region also means that Shinde could still be an important factor for the BJP to tackle a resurgent Thackeray.

After the results were announced, Shinde said he accepted that the ruling alliance had suffered “some loss” in Maharashtra but said the “fake campaign by the opposition that the NDA government would change the Constitution if it came to power” was responsible for this. “We will rectify our errors in the coming days,” he said. Shinde also took the opportunity afforded by the Sena (UBT)’s poor showing in Thane and Konkan, where not a single candidate won, to say that the people of the two regions had shown the Thackeray camp its place.

For Thackeray, his party’s failure to win even a single seat in Konkan and western Maharashtra comes as a dampener. The Shiv Sena (UBT) contested five seats in Konkan but lost all. In western Maharashtra too, it failed to win the three seats it contested. Overall, its strike rate too is lower—it contested 21 seats and barely reached doubt digits.