Mixed reactions in BJP to Raj’s potential tie-up with party

MUMBAI: A day after the informal confirmation on the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena’s tie-up with the BJP, experts and insiders from the state ruling alliance have expressed reservations on whether they will benefit from the move. The BJP leadership is wary of the reaction of North Indian voters, who are sceptical about the MNS.

MNS chief Raj Thackeray met union home minister Amit Shah on Tuesday and reportedly agreed to join the ruling alliance. The MNS is expected to contest the Mumbai South Lok Sabha constituency and has been batting for the Shirdi seat as well. Many BJP leaders from the state unit of the party were reportedly against taking the MNS on board.

“Had the MNS fought the polls independently, it would have benefited the ruling alliance owing to the division of Marathi votes,” said a senior Mumbai BJP leader. “We saw in the past, when in an alliance with the undivided Shiv Sena, that a big section of Marathi votes do not get transferred to the BJP and would go to parties like the MNS. This time too, the transfer appears to be difficult.”

The leader also pointed to Raj’s anti-North Indian image, which could disturb the BJP’s traditional vote bank, not only in Mumbai and Maharashtra but in North India too. “Gujarati speakers and businessmen, who are typical BJP voters, are also unhappy with the MNS for its recent signboard campaign,” he said. The leader added that the BJP had joined hands with Raj Thackeray in the hope that he would be helpful as an impressive orator in the polls, and since the LS polls are fought on prime minister Modi’s name, North Indian voters would not move away.

The vote share of the MNS has been dwindling over the last 15 years because of the performance deficit and Raj’s constantly flip-flopping political stand. Its vote share in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls dropped sharply to 1.5% from 4.1% in the 2009 polls. The assembly polls in 2009 saw the party win a whopping 13 seats with 5.71% votes, which dropped to 3.15% votes in 2014 and 2.25% in 2019. It did not field candidates against the BJP in the 2014 LS polls.

Other BJP leaders said that the leadership in Delhi was hopeful about the addition of MNS votes after Raj Thackeray joined the combine. “The MNS was not fighting the 2109 assembly polls with all its might, despite which it got sizable votes of around 20,000 in Mumbai,” said a leader. “It is true that the party’s vote share has been dwindling but it still has a sizable presence in Mumbai and many urban constituencies.”

Many BJP leaders insisted that the MNS joining hands with them would be a help. “The MNS propounds Hindutva ideology as we do, and anybody who joins the alliance for the vision and mission of Modiji is welcome,” said Vishwas Pathak, BJP spokesperson. Some BJP leaders said that Raj Thackeray could help the party counter the Uddhav Thackeray camp’s campaign that the BJP was an “anti-Maharashtra” party.

Anurag Tripathi, political analyst said that North Indian voters might not go against the MNS, as the latter’s anti-North Indian stance was an old one. “The BJP has taken many North Indian leaders in its fold and it could work in the party’s favour,” he said. “In fact, Marathi voters would be more upset by the MNS joining hands with the BJP.” Tripathi added that the BJP’s complaint that Sena votes did not get transferred to them was likely to continue after the new alliance as well.

Mumbai-based political analyst Hemant Desai said the alliance would not help either party. “Neither the BJP nor the MNS will benefit from the alliance, as the latter has dented the image of both parties,” he said. “MNS voters are upset about Raj joining hands with the party that broke the Shiv Sena. The BJP, on its part, has allied with the MNS out of helplessness, as Shinde has failed to bring the expected support from the electorate.”