The solution worked out by Shinde's aides and state officials is being claimed as a victory by Jarange-Patil: A sizeable number of Marathas will receive certificates of being Kunbi, which is a peasant sub-caste of the Maratha community that is counted under the OBC category, thus making them liable to attaining reservation in government jobs and education. Further, once the draft notification issued by the government is formalised and implemented, even the “sage-soyare” (blood relatives from the father's side or through same-caste marriage) of these 5.4 million applicants will also be eligible for Kunbi certificates.

“This is as good as giving blanket reservations to Marathas through the OBC quota. If implemented properly, up to 20 million Marathas will get the benefit of reservation,” Jarange-Patil told media persons on Monday. State officials expect at least 10 million relatives to receive benefits under the “sage-soyare” notification once it is finalised. The state has invited suggestions and objections on the draft notification till February 16, as per procedures.

Having dealt with the Maratha agitation that was troubling the Shiv Sena-BJP government since the controversial lathi charge on the Maratha community members on September 1, when Jarange-Patil was on hunger strike, Shinde is now positioning himself as the politician who “solved the long pending demand of Marathas.”

Many in the ruling alliance are elated at the prospect of the support of the Maratha community — the most influential caste in Maharashtra politics — whose members form a strong support base for the Nationalist Congress Party and the Congress. Shinde has also achieved something that his predecessors failed to do.

Expectedly, the OBC leaders and outfits have strongly objected to the government's decisions. In the meetings of OBC leaders at the residence of NCP (Ajit Pawar faction) minister and prominent OBC leader Chhagan Bhujbal at the start of the week, they decided to launch a statewide campaign against the decisions. "It is the end of reservation for the existing castes in the OBC category. Already we barely have 17% reservation. Now with lakhs of Marathas sharing the same quota, what would we get?” Bhujbal said on Tuesday.

The OBC leaders are convinced of the government’s bias towards Marathas given how quickly the administration responded to demands of Jarange-Patil. In most meetings, the consensus seems to be that the CM has given the Marathas a backdoor entry to reservation, while the quota already made available to them remains under legal scrutiny.

But the bigger problem is the tussle between Marathas and OBCs for political dominance. Following the implementation of the Mandal Commission's recommendations, the Maharashtra government gave the OBCs political reservations in self-government bodies (district councils in rural areas and municipal bodies in cities). Out of the elected representatives on these bodies, 27% seats are reserved for the candidates from the OBC category. Now, the OBC leaders fear that the Marathas, brandishing their Kunbi caste certificates, would corner this quota as well.

The BJP, the main political player in Maharashtra, is weighing the pros and cons of the development. According to party insiders, Shinde had been given a free hand by New Delhi to handle the agitation. Now the party leaders are observing the response of the community.

While happy that the agitation has been stemmed, and the demands of a significant section of the Maratha community are met, the BJP central leadership has taken a cautious stand over the protests by the OBCs. It has even allowed its OBC leaders like Ram Shinde and Gopichand Padalkar to attend the meetings of OBC outfits and participate in protests.

The party's balancing act is understandable: On the one hand, it doesn't want Marathas to rally behind the tallest Maratha leader in the state, Sharad Pawar. On the other, it wants to ensure that its traditional support base of OBCs remains intact. OBCs form a significant chunk of votes, especially in the party's stronghold Vidarbha region, where the Congress, led by Nana Patole — an OBC leader — is trying to recover its lost ground.

This was reflected in deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis's remark: “I want to make it clear that the interest of the OBC community will not be touched. The decision taken by the government is a balanced one,” he said. At the same time he will take up the matter with “seniors in Delhi” if it looks like the OBCs' interests are getting affected, he said.

That has not pacified the OBC leaders including Shinde-Fadnavis' cabinet colleague Bhujbal, who is preparing for a statewide campaign against the decisions. While there are apprehensions that the part on extending the benefit of reservation to close relatives may not stand the legal scrutiny, OBC outfits are quite likely to challenge the decision in the court once the final notification is issued by the government.

At any rate, the Maratha versus OBC tussle, barely a couple of months before the Lok Sabha elections, may change the electoral calculation of parties. Will it help the BJP, as the reservation row could overshadow the efforts of Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray, to garner the sympathy of voters against those who split the two regional parties of Maharashtra?

"The political situation in Maharashtra has become complicated. Marathas are happy with Shinde now but legally it is not easy for his government to implement the decisions taken to please the Maratha community and Jarange-Patil. On the other hand, if OBCs go against the ruling parties, will it impact the prospects of the BJP and its allies in Lok Sabha elections? There are no immediate answers but the picture should be clear in a month or so once the implementation of the decisions begins," opined Padmabhushan Deshpande, a Mumbai-based political analyst.

Meanwhile, the person who has bet on Jarange-Patil — chief minister Shinde — is happy with the tag of being the “Maratha-friendly face” of the ruling alliance. That has helped him score over his (fellow Maratha) competitor, Ajit Pawar. It could also ensure him a stable tenure unless the Supreme Court rules against him in the Uddhav Thackeray faction's petition seeking his disqualification under the anti-defection law.

Shailesh Gaikwad, political editor of HT Mumbai, breaks down the most important political news in Maharashtra this week