Fears of cross-voting as Mahayuti-versus-MVA contest likely for 11 MLC seats

MUMBAI: Two years after a legislative council election led to an upheaval in Maharashtra politics, with the fall of the then Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government and a split in the Shiv Sena, another election for 11 seats to the upper house of the state legislature has sparked off speculations and apprehension of cross-voting months before the assembly elections in the state. With the opposition MVA fielding three candidates, elections are inevitable as 12 candidates filed papers for 11 seats on Tuesday. Members of the legislative assembly will be electing the 11 members of the legislative council (MLC) by preferential voting on July 12.

All 12 candidates—five from the BJP, two each from its allies Shiv Sena and NCP and one each from the MVA allies, Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT) and Peasants and Workers Party—filed their nominations on Tuesday.

With members resigning after election to the Lok Sabha or joining other parties or passing away, the strength of the assembly has reduced from 288 to 274. Based on the strength of the house, it is likely that candidates will need 23 votes to get elected. The ruling alliance has a strength of 181 while the opposition has a strength of 64. There are 29 MLAs who are either independents or from small parties. Since both sides do not have adequate votes to get their candidates elected, there are apprehensions of horse-trading to woo small parties and independents as well as cross-voting by MLAs of major parties—something similar to the 2022 council elections when 11 candidates were in the fray for 10 seats, and the BJP scored over the then ruling MVA due to cross-voting by some of the latter’s MLAs. It was on the same day that Eknath Shinde, then a Sena minister, left for Surat with Shiv Sena MLAs and later split the party.

Hectic parleys were on in both ruling and opposition camps till late on Tuesday. Leaders from the ruling alliance said that either the Shiv Sena (UBT) or PWP candidate would lose, as the Mahayuti had managed adequate numbers. On the other hand, MVA leaders insisted that the scenario had changed post the opposition coalition winning 30 seats in the Lok Sabha polls.

“MVA candidates were leading in more than 160 assembly segments, including several represented by ruling-party MLAs,” said a senior NCP (SP) faction leader. “As such, there is unease among Shiv Sena and NCP MLAs, several of whom are in touch with the rival factions. There are chances of some of them cross-voting for MVA candidates.” The leader added that there was a possibility that the Shinde-led Sena and Ajit Pawar-led NCP could lose votes and one of their candidates could get affected.

For its five seats, BJP has fielded senior OBC leader Pankaja Munde, farmers’ leader Sadabhau Khot, former minister Parinay Phuke, Yogesh Tilekar and Amit Gorkhe. Its ally Shiv Sena has fielded two former MPs, Bhawna Gawli and Krupal Tumane, who were denied a Lok Sabha ticket and had been promised rehabilitation. The Ajit Pawar-led NCP has fielded Rajesh Vitekar and Shivajirao Garje. From the MVA, the Congress’ Pradnya Satav, Shiv Sena (UBT) candidate Milind Narvekar and the PWP’s Jayant Patil are in the fray.

According to Sena (UBT) leaders, the party fielded Narvekar after taking an assurance from the Congress that the latter would pass on additional votes to its candidate. Of the 37 Congress MLAs, the party has decided to give its candidate Satav a safe quota of 30 votes, although the Sena (UBT) is demanding 10 votes from its ally.

“Uddhav Thackeray is upset with the PWP’s Jayant Patil, as he believes that their ally did not support his candidate Anant Geete and tacitly joined hands with NCP (Ajit Pawar faction) candidate Sunil Tatkare,” said a Sena (UBT) leader. “Thackeray did not even accept Patil’s request for a meeting before the filing of nominations. With the help of the Congress and Shankarrao Gadakh, an independent, we can win the seat.”

The Shiv Sena (UBT) has a strength of 15 MLAs while the Congress’ strength has reduced from 45 to 37 after two of its MLAs resigned to join other parties, Sunil Kedar was suspended, four were elected as MPs and P N Patil, the party’s Kolhapur MLA, died a few months ago.

The BJP too needs at least 12 additional votes, as it has fielded five candidates and needs 115 votes to win them against its strength of 103. “We have the support of seven independents apart from the strength of our smaller allies like the Rashtriya Samaj Paksha (1), Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (1) and Jan Surajya Shakti (1). We will, however, manage the additional votes required,” said a BJP leader.

Meanwhile, there is apprehension in the ruling parties over Narvekar’s candidature since he is known for his cordial relations with leaders of all stripes. The Mahayuti leaders are wary of his personal contacts with legislators from all three ruling parties which, they feel, he could use to get the few extra votes needed for him to get elected.

In the 288-seat house, 14 seats are vacant for various reasons. Of the remaining 274, 103 are BJP MLAs. The Congress has 37 MLAs, Shiv Sena (Shinde) 38, NCP (Ajit Pawar) 40, Shiv Sena (UBT) 15, NCP (SP) 12, Bahujan Vikas Aghadi three, SP, AIMIM and Prahar Janshakti Paksha two each, and the Swabhimani Paksha, MNS, PWP, RSP, CPI-M, Krantikari Shetkari Paksha and Jan Surajya Shakti one each. The number of independents is 13.