Maharashtra polls: Can anti-incumbency dent Fadnavis’s chances in Nagpur South-West?

NAGPUR: Praful Gudadhe-Patil is counting on the state’s economic troubles to be his secret weapon, hoping that a wave of anti-incumbency will help him slay Goliath in the upcoming assembly elections. A low-profile former municipal corporator, Gudadhe-Patil of the Congress will be taking on deputy chief minister, Devendra Fadnavis, in the Nagpur South-West constituency – for the second time. In the 2014 assembly polls, he lost to Fadnavis with a margin of 60,000 votes.

Although the odds are clearly in Fadnavis’s favour, the senior Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leader is leaving nothing to chance. As he seeks a sixth term from this stronghold, he is flooding the constituency with his campaign materials while his supporters drive a robust door-to-door initiative. The BJP, which leads the Mahayuti alliance government in the state, is showcasing the Ladki Bahin scheme and other welfare measures, emphasising Fadnavis’s accomplishments such as the MIHAN cargo hub, an AIIMS hospital, an Indian Institute of Management (IIM) and a National Law University.

Fadnavis’s track record

Devendra Fadnavis has, time and again, defeated prominent figures in his constituency. He began his electoral journey in 1999, when he won from the West Nagpur constituency by defeating former state Congress Seva Dal chief, Ashok Dhawad. In 2004, he triumphed in the same constituency, this time against former Maharashtra Congress chief and ex-minister, Ranjit Deshmukh.

In 2009, when the new Nagpur South-West constituency was created, Fadnavis faced his old friend, Vikas Thakare of the Congress, and emerged victorious. In the 2014 elections, the Congress fielded Prafulla Gudadhe-Patil, son of former minister Vinod Gudadhe-Patil, a one-time core BJP member and the first BJP MLA from Nagpur. Despite Gudadhe-Patil’s local dominance as a senior corporator, Fadnavis defeated him that year. Voters then had no idea that they were backing a candidate who would become chief minister.

In the 2019 elections, Fadnavis triumphed against the Congress’s Ashish Deshmukh, who has since switched to the BJP and is currently contesting in Saoner against Anuja Kedar of the Congress.

In the last five years, Fadnavis has initiated numerous projects in his constituency, including an indoor sports stadium, the development of ‘London Street’, green gyms, new sewer lines, and the construction of roads. Furthermore, Fadnavis has not only solidified his role as a party leader but also as someone who can lead the state, which undoubtedly enhances his political edge.

All Fadnavis’s electoral victories have been more than convincing: he defeated Vikas Thakare by over 28,000 votes in 2009, by 60,000 votes against Gudadhe-Patil in 2014, and by more than 50,000 votes in 2019 against Congress’s Ashish Deshmukh.

Gudadhe-Patil as a challenger

Dr Srinivas Khandewale, an economist and a Nagpur South-West voter, suggests that the current landscape is markedly different from 2014 or 2019. He notes that anti-incumbency, inflation, unemployment, and caste dynamics could pose challenges for Fadnavis and, although a BJP bastion, this election may not be a cakewalk for Fadnavis.

Khandewale describes Gudadhe-Patil as an accessible and energetic young politician. Recognised as a diligent corporator, he is passionate about public issues. His background in the influential Kunbi community and the substantial presence of OBC and Dalit voters in the constituency may play a crucial role in the electoral outcome.

Although OBC voters have historically aligned with the BJP in this constituency, the recent Lok Sabha elections indicated a potential alienation of these voters from the party in some Vidarbha areas. Nonetheless, Nitin Gadkari secured a lead of over 33,000 votes in this assembly segment, suggesting continued support in Nagpur South-West.

This constituency also has a highly educated electorate, which could dampen the caste impact here. Also, the number of women voters in Nagpur South-West exceeds that of male voters, suggesting that the Mahayuti government’s flagship Ladki Bahin scheme could significantly influence the election outcome.

Fadnavis was groomed by his father Gangadharrao Fadnavis, a former MLC, and by Union Minister for Transport, Nitin Gadkari. Frequently mentioned as a potential successor to Prime Minister Modi and a future national president of the BJP, this election presents a crucial test for the 54-year-old politician as he hopes to secure a decisive victory in his bid for reelection.

The challenger: What he says

Praful Gudadhe-Patil (Cong) said that in 2014, he was unprepared for the ‘Modi wave’, which significantly boosted the BJP’s performance. “Things changed in 2024, and I am entering the ring to win,” he said, referring to the outcome of the recent Lok Sabha elections, which have boosted the morale of the Congress. “The unity among the MVA constituents (which includes the Congress) has created a consolidated vote bank—a dynamic that was missing in the 2019 elections.”