‘Budget 2024-25 is an exercise in camouflage and jugglery’

MUMBAI: The budget 2024-25 documents reveal camouflage and jugglery of figures by the state government in several areas from the projection of the budget deficit and revenue generation to the outlay for key sectors like social justice and public health, say officials and analysts.

According to the figures in the budget documents, the government’s revenue generation has fallen short by at least 6% to 8% or over ₹20,000 crore less every year than the figures estimated in successive budgets. For instance, the total expenditure in 2022-23 was estimated to be ₹5.81 lakh crore, against which the actual spending was just ₹5.18 lakh crore, which is a whopping 62,350 crore less than projected. There was a similar situation in 2013-14, when the expected fiscal expenditure was projected to be ₹1.97 lakh crore, against which the government spent ₹1.87 lakh crore.

The average annual expenditure projected in the state budgets between 2015-16 and 2022-23 was ₹3.81 lakh crore, against which the actual expenditure was ₹3.57 lakh crore, a whopping ₹24,000 crore less per year. The figures of the actual expenditure come in six to eight months after the financial year has ended and are given in the following year’s budget documents. The budget presented by finance minister Ajit Pawar this week has the actual figures of financial year (FY) 2022-23.

Similarly, the actual figures of the expenditure on key areas, including agriculture, irrigation and rural development, suggest that the budgeted outlay is never spent. The FY 2022-23 figures show that the state government spent 22% less ( ₹16,005 crore as against the budgeted amount of ₹20,468 crore) on agriculture and allied services, 47% less ( ₹920 crore against the outlay of ₹1,742 crore) on industries and mining and 25% less ( ₹58,454 crore against the outlay of ₹78,347 crore) on social services among other sectors.

The debt burden on the state exchequer has mounted to ₹7.83 lakh crore in 2024-25 from ₹3.24 lakh crore in 2015-16. This has taken the per capita debt in the state to ₹61,363 from ₹27,521 in 2015-16.

Rupesh Keer of Samarthan, a think-tank which studies the state budget, said that figures were routinely inflated to hide the deficit. “The projected figures in the revised estimates of the fiscal year and the actual revenue generation are poles apart,” he said. “This is done deliberately to hide the indiscipline which otherwise could come to the fore through the deficit. The budgets of key sectors like social justice remain unspent at the end of the year. For instance, ₹19,000 crore less of its budgetary allocation was spent on social justice.” Keer added that the difference between actual spending and projection had widened in the last ten years.

Officials from the finance department said the vast difference between actual expenditure and projection was an indicator of either fiscal mismanagement or a deliberate attempt to hide the deficit. “The rise in the deficit is an indicator of the cut in the outlay for developmental works and capital expenditure,” said an official, adding that the unrealistically high projection of revenue receipts helped to ostensibly keep the deficit in control but it was just a cover-up.

“For instance, the government has revised its estimated revenue receipts for FY 2023-24 to ₹4.87 lakh crore from ₹4.49 crore estimated in February last year when the budget was presented,” he said. “The revenue receipts till January-end are ₹3.20 lakh crore, and taking the figure to ₹4.87 lakh crore in the remaining two months is highly improbable. The receipts in these two months are unlikely to be more than ₹80,000 crore.”

Vijay Wadettiwar, leader of the opposition in the legislative assembly, said that the state government had indulged in jugglery of figures. “The figures are being hidden while projecting the fiscal and revenue deficit just to project a rosy picture,” he said. “For instance, the fiscal deficit for FY 2024-25 is projected to be ₹99,288 crore. In FY 2023-24, it was initially projected to be ₹95,500 crore and later revised to ₹1.12 lakh crore. If the deficit in the current year is ₹1.12 lakh crore, how is it going to be ₹13,000 crore less next year, which is an election year with more expenditure?”

Wadettiwar added that while hiding the figures, the government had reduced expenditure on key sectors, including agriculture and power, which have seen a reduction of ₹8,000 crore and ₹2,500 crore respectively. “The budget for the welfare of SCs, STs and OBCs has also been reduced by ₹3500 crore,” he said.