With a Muslim face against Rajnath in Lko, has BSP upped the odds for SP’s Ravidas?

In a contest that is already perceived as being tilted in favour of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) has made the road even more difficult for the INDIA bloc-supported Samajwadi Party candidate in the state capital Lucknow.

The BSP decision to field a Muslim candidate is likely to make things more challenging for the Samajwadi party’s Ravi Das Mehrotra, who is pitted against BJP stalwart and defence minister Rajnath Singh. It is for the first time since the 2009 Lok Sabha polls that the BSP has given a Muslim face in Lucknow, a BJP stronghold for the past more than three decades.

In 1991, former prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee had won the seat for the party. Over the years, it came to be identified as “Atal’s Lucknow”.

From then on to 2004, it was Vajpayee who represented the constituency in the Lok Sabha. Following him was Lalji Tandon in 2009 and since 2014, the seat has been held by Rajnath Singh.

With BSP’s Sarwar Malik entering the electoral contest, the focus will now be on the voting choices of the sizeable Muslim voters in the constituency. Estimates suggest Muslims constitute around 18-19% of the total voting population on this seat. Clearly, it is this strong segment of voters which the SP Congress combine had been eyeing to be the base of their decent launch pad in the fight against the BJP. With Sarwar Malik in the race, question is can SP’s Ravidas prevent a breach in this block?

Why the BSP’s Muslim factor should be a big cause of concern for the INDIA bloc is proven by the electoral numbers in this prestigious constituency, where barring 2009, even the combined vote share of the Samajwadi Party and the Congress has never surpassed that of the BJP.

Since Rajnath Singh took on the mantle from Lalji Tandon in 2014, the BJP’s vote share has only gone further up. Propelled by the Modi wave and Rajnath Singh’s own popularity, even amidst a section of the Muslim voters, especially the Shia community, the general elections of 2014 and 2019 had been a smooth sail for the BJP in Lucknow.

In 2009, however, the BJP’s victory margin saw a significant dip as compared to the Atal era before that.

Tandon’s victory margin was only 40,901 votes, which was a big drop from the 2004 results, when Vajpayee had won by more than 2.18 lakh plus votes.

But the scenario changed from 2014 onwards with Rajnath Singh taking over the baton from Lalji Tandon. The general election saw a landslide victory for the BJP as whole and in Lucknow, the party’s vote percentage saw a significant jump.

Even the combined vote share of the Congress, the SP and the BSP then could not surpass that of Rajnath Singh’s vote percentage. Rajnath got more than 54% of the total votes polled.

By the time of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP had further entrenched its position in Lucknow. The saffron fortification was so strong that even the SP-BSP alliance had no impact against Rajnath. He went on to further consolidate his hold.

The combined vote share of the SP and BSP alliance candidate Poonam Shatrughan Sinha and that of Congress candidate Acharya Pramod Krishnan was much below Singh’s vote percentage of 56.70.

However, some experts feel that this time around the BSP’s Muslim card will not have much of an impact. The party has of late been seen to be batting on the BJP pitch and, hence, Muslims in general will likely not be carried away by the Muslim face on the BSP’s symbol. Dr Prashant Trivedi, associate prof, Giri Institute of Development Studies, says, “Muslim voters in Lucknow have traditionally voted for non-Muslim candidates and secular parties. Taking this into consideration, BSP candidate Sarvar Malik will not be able to make any difference to the voting pattern of Muslims. However, irrespective of who the candidates are from INDIA bloc or the BSP, Rajnath Singh’s position in Lucknow is very formidable. Over the years, middle class voters have increased in Lucknow and they have voted for the BJP.”

Rajnath’s son Neeraj Singh, who has been busy managing his father’s campaign, dismisses anything like the Muslim factor being against the BJP.

He claims Muslims in Lucknow have been equally supportive of the BJP, like other communities and that the vote share of his father will only go up in this election.