Will split in Muslim vote give edge to BJP in Lucknow?

As campaigning for the Lok Sabha polls gathers momentum, there are speculations over a split in the potential minority community vote in Lucknow, which has a sizeable chunk of Muslim voters (around 21%). It will be interesting to see how political parties approach minority voters to garner support.

Political circles are abuzz with the talk that there may be a split in Muslim votes due to Bahujan Samaj Party’s Muslim candidate Sarwar Malik.

The Samajwadi Party, which used to get the biggest chunk of Muslim votes, has started taking pot shots at the BSP for fielding a Muslim candidate from Lucknow.

SP candidate from Lucknow, Ravidas Mehrotra, said: “The BJP and BSP are two sides of the same coin...they are working together to defeat the Samajwadi Party that follows the PDA line.”

However, former minister Mohsin Raza said, “Out of 2,14,7,932 voters in Lucknow, around 4.40 lakh are Muslims, of which around 80,000 are Shias. In the past a substantial Shia population traditionally leaned towards the BJP in a subtle way. However, recent elections indicated that prominent Shia leaders in the region have openly aligned with the BJP. This shift has contributed to the election victories of BJP candidates.”

Recently, soon after filing nominations, defence minister and Lucknow MP Rajnath Singh met prominent Shia leaders and they openly supported his candidature from Lucknow, he added.

Basit Ali, state president of BJP Alpsankhyak Morcha, said: “Former Prime Minister late Atal Bihari Vajpayee played a significant role in laying the groundwork for this shift of Shia votes to the BJP. Known for his inclusive leadership style, he influenced minority voters because of his personal charisma.”

He added: “Credit should be given to the party leadership for cultivating Aijaz Rizvi, Sheema Rizvi and other influential Shia leaders within the BJP. Leaders like Mohsin Raza and Bukkal Nawab have emerged as prominent voices within the party. Leaders like Danish Azad Ansari have played a pivotal role in bridging the gap between the BJP and the Muslim community.”

“Besides, the BJP has relied on its policy initiatives to attract minority voters. This time, minorities in Lucknow are expected to vote for the BJP in good numbers,” he claimed.

After the Vajpayee era, BJP’s vote share has constantly increased in Lucknow. In 2009, Lalji Tandon won this seat by getting 2,04,028 votes, which was around 34.93% of the total votes polled while his nearest rival Rita Bahuguna Joshi got 27.93% of the votes, said Ali.

In 2014, Rajnath Singh got 5,61,106 votes, which was 54.27 % of the total votes polled. His nearest rival Rita Bahuguna Joshi got 27.89% of votes.

In 2019, Rajnath Singh got 6,33,026 votes, which was 56.70% of the total votes polled. His nearest rival Poonam Sinha got 25.59% votes. The trend shows that his percentage of votes increased from 2009 to 2019 while vote percentage of opposition decreased marginally. “Such increase would not have been possible without the support of minorities, So, when Muslims are voting for the BJP, the opposition knows they will not get full votes of minorities,” said Basit Ali.

AIMPLB member Maulana Khalid Rasheed Farangi Mahali remarked, “Earlier, Muslims voted as a unified bloc, but today, political and social mobilization has highlighted sub-identities, allowing the BJP to gain traction within a section of Muslims.”

Mohsin Raza said the BJP’s stance against triple talaq has resonated with some women Muslim voters, leading to greater support for the party in Lucknow.

He added: “21% votes means a lot, so every party is trying to woo voters of minority community as they have the potential to make a difference.”