Will BJP pick a Dalit as its U.P. chief or rely on OBC, upper caste face again?

With the district-level elections having been completed more than a week ago, the BJP is now set to appoint its new Uttar Pradesh state president. The decision will play a crucial role in chalking out the party’s strategy for the 2027 assembly elections and the civic polls immediately thereafter.

The key challenge for the BJP is, however, countering the opposition’s caste mobilisation, particularly the Samajwadi Party’s PDA (Pichhda, Dalit, Alpsankhyak) formula.

A major question looming over the selection process is whether the BJP will appoint a Dalit leader as its state president—something that has probably never happened in U.P. since 1980 when Madhav Prasad Trivedi, an upper caste Brahmin, was elected the party’s (then Jansangh) first U.P. chief. Or will the party once again bet on an upper caste or Other Backward Classes (OBC) face?

According to BJP insiders given the growing focus on social engineering in the state with the principal Opposition also aggressively mobilising voters on caste lines especially since the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the party (BJP) may consider the move to elect a Dalit the party chief in U.P. to consolidate its Dalit vote bank.

One argument being put forward in support of the theory as to why the BJP can rely on a Dalit face is that the party feels most Dalits, who used to be committed voters of the Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), are feeling detached from the BSP after the party’s repeated electoral debacles.

“The BJP feels it has a good opportunity to bring the BSP’s traditional vote base under its fold and appointing a Dalit leader the party president, the first time, in UP, may heighten this chance,” a senior BJP leader said.

“Appointing a Dalit leader as the U.P. BJP president may also help the party to counter the Opposition’s propaganda about the BJP-being anti-Ambedkar and anti-Dalit,” he added.

Among the Dalit leaders whose names the party may consider as the state president include Vidya Sagar Sonkar, Ram Shankar Katheria and Jugul Kishore.

“The BJP, at the same time is also conscious of the fact, that the OBCs are its backbone, and it has been in power since 2017 largely because of mobilisation of non-Yadav OBCs in its favour. Hence, the party may feel compelled to go for an OBC face yet again,” another BJP leader said.

Amar Pal Maurya, BL Verma and Dharam Pal Singh, a minister in the Yogi government, are some of the OBC leaders who may be considered for the top organisational post in the state.

“If the party relies on an upper caste, the likely names doing the rounds are Harish Dwivedi, Dinesh Sharma and Govind Narayan Shukla,” the leader said.

Apart from Trivedi, the other BJP presidents in U.P. have been Kalyan Singh (OBC), Rajendra Gupta (Vaishya), Kalraj Mishra (Brahmin), Rajnath Singh, (Thakur), Vinay Katiyar (OBC), Om Prakash Singh (OBC), Keshari Nath Tripathi (Brahmin), Ramapati Ram Tripathi (Brahmin), Surya Pratap Shahi (upper caste), Laxmikant Bajpai (Brahmin), Keshav Prasad Maurya (OBC), Mahendra Nath Pandey (Brahmin) and Swatantra Dev Singh (OBC).

Chaudhary Bhupendra Singh, who took over from Swatantra Dev Singh on August 25, 2022, is a Jat leader.

The BJP will seek to balance various caste and regional equations. With the OBC and upper-caste vote banks largely intact, the party could explore a Dalit leader to strengthen its social coalition, more so because the chief minister Yogi Adityanath and deputy chief minister Brajesh Pathak both come from upper caste (Thakur and Brahmin respectively) while another deputy CM Keshav Prasad Maurya is an OBC. However, the party may also opt for an OBC face to counter the SP’s PDA push.

If a Dalit leader is chosen, it would indicate BJP’s intent to make deeper inroads among SC voters, particularly Jatavs, who have traditionally supported the BSP. On the other hand, picking an OBC or upper-caste leader would signal a consolidation of its existing social base.

With assembly elections still two years away, the BJP is looking for a leader who can not only counter the opposition’s caste arithmetic but also galvanize the party’s grassroots machinery. The new president’s ability to maintain cohesion within the party while navigating the complexities of UP’s caste politics will be crucial.

Much will also depend on who is elected the new BJP national president in place of JP Nadda, The caste of the new national president will invariably influence the BJP’s decision to pick new state president in U.P. and in many other states.